839
FXUS63 KDDC 220003
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
703 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40-60%) LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR AND ALONG THE COLORADO LINE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40-60%) RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND A
SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TUESDAY AS THE SREF HINTS AT
AN EXTREMELY WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A MODEST WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY WILL HELP USHER A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING BEFORE IT PROJECTS TO STALL OUT GENERALLY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) TO POTENTIALLY NEAR 60F
EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE. DESPITE A LESS THAN A ROBUST FLOW
ALOFT, AMPLE INSTABILITY COMBINED STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H5 VORT
MAXIMA BEGIN TO KICK OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY/DRYLINE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS SUGGESTED BY CAMS
AND WHERE THE NBM PAINTS A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING
0.25 OF AN INCH BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO BE RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH A LACK OF MORE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. STILL, THE MAIN HAZARDS LOOK TO BE
QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (60-80%) EXISTS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS, INTERACTING WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE GENERALLY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. DETAILS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN THAT FAR
OUT, BUT THE LATEST NBM SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 30-50% PROBABILITY
OF 12-HR QPF TOPPING 0.25 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
LOWEST SOUTHWEST.
FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS PREVAILING
SOUTHERLIES REINFORCE A WARMER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA, NOT TO
MENTION PULLING MOISTURE IN AS WELL, INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
WITH THE HREF INDICATING A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES SLIPPING
BELOW 45F IN WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO A 10-30%
PROBABILITY OF DROPPING BELOW 50F IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS,
LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) CAN BE EXPECTED WEST WITH LOWS HOLDING
CLOSER TO 50F FARTHER EAST. A PROJECTED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 15C
WHILE H85 TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS(C) IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TO A A LITTLE ABOVE 20C CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA LINE IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 70S(F) TO POSSIBLY THE 80S(F) AS THE LATEST HREF
PAINTS A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING 75F NORTH TO AN
80-90% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 80F ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE. GENERALLY
LOWER HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIKELY INCREASED CLOUDS AND
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS SETTLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE NBM
INDICATES A WIDESPREAD 80-90% PROBABILITY OF AFTERNOON HIGHS EXCEEDING
70F.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT SOUTH
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS TO BECOME LIGHT OR 10 KTS OR LESS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074-075-084-085.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH
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