296
FXUS63 KDDC 220746
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
246 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A STAFFORD
TO GREENSBURG AND ASHLAND LINE AFTER 5 PM.
- THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
CONTINUED HOT FOR THE SEASON OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. SAVE
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE A SURFACE COLD FRONT, ALMOST A
STATIONARY FRONT, MAY RELEGATE HIGHS TO ONLY REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 70S THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR/SOCTT CITY AREA. WITH
THE SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT BY THE END OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WILL BE ENHANCED WITH SUCCESSIVE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES THOUGH THE SOUTHWEST MID TO UPPER FLOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FIRST OF NOTE IS THE CONVECTION THE HREF DEVELOPS
ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE LIST OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MEMBERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING (12-15Z)ISH SEEN IN THE HRRR NESTED NAM MOST
AGGRESSIVELY. TRAINING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY EVENING, EXACT LOCATION MIGHT VARY NORTH OR
SOUTH BY A COUNTY OR TWO HOWEVER, THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO
SHOW IMPACTFUL VALUES OF 0-2 KM FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE. PARALLEL TO THE GENERAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS NOT THE
BEST SEVERE WEATHER SETUP HOWEVER GOOD ENOUGH FOR A 5% MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK WHICH WILL CENTER ON MOSTLY AROUND DAMAGING WIND,
AND MARGINAL QUARTER SIZE HAIL. WEDNESDAY EVENING’S SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, MEANING THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
FLASH FLOODING IN WITHING 25 MILES OF ANY POINT, FALLS
GENERALLY EAST OF A LARNED TO KINSLEY AND ASHLAND LINE. THIS IS
GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED INITIATION FEATURES AS
WELL AS A FETCH OF UP TO 1.5” PWATS EXTENDING FROM THE RED
RIVER REGION INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FRIDAY
WILL BE THE FIRST DAY TO TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF THE COOLER AIR.
A COLL AND CLOUDY AFTERNOON IS FORECAST BY THE BM FOR A RANGE OF
HIGH FORECAST AT DODGE CITY BETWEEN 65 AND 73 ALL MEMBERS
BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE INCLUDED. EXPECT COOLER
THAN THAT AS YOU HEAD WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE SMOKY HILL
VALLEY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS IS ON THE IMMEDIATE HORIZON AS
LAMP GUIDANCE FOR DDC OFFERS SUSTAINED WINDS BECOMING WEAKER
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DIURNAL BOUNCE THIS MORNING, AND NO GUSTS AT
ALL. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND UNDER 10 KNOTS BY THE 18Z AND AFTER TIMEFRAME.
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SAVE FOR ANY UNFORESEEN MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, THIS
CONVECTION WON’T IMPACT THE 4 SW KANSAS TERMINALS AS IT DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN OK ANS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MOVING EAST AROUND 00
UTC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
UNLIKE THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST, NEITHER WIND SPEEDS OR GUSTS WILL REACH THE
CRITERION FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THE DAY BEFORE TURNING
EASTERLY (STILL LIGHT) FOLLOWING A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL
INFLUENCE IN THE MID AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL STILL BE QUITE LOW, AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS (PERCENT)
BY PEAK HEATING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
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