311
FXUS63 KDDC 221917
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
217 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-60%) RETURN THIS EVENING WITH A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BISECTS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-60%) PICK UP LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THE SREF CONTINUES TO POINT TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A RELATIVELY
WEAK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STALLED BOUNDARY
STRETCHES FROM EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. POOLING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) TO NEAR 60F,
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES UPWARD OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG. DESPITE A LESS THAN ROBUST FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COMBINED AND STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HELP SUPPORT POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS H5 VORT MAXIMA EJECT OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
BY EARLY EVENING, INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY/DRYLINE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AS SUGGESTED BY CAMS AND WHERE THE HREF/NBM BOTH SHOW A 20%
PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.25 OF AN INCH BY LATE EVENING.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIMITED.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (60-80%) ARE EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS, INTERACTING WITH A BOUNDARY LIFTING
BACK NORTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS A WARM FRONT. AMPLE MOISTURE
RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB WELL
UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S(F) TO POTENTIALLY THE LOWER 60S(F),
INCREASING INSTABILITY. COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY AS H5 VORT MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA, INTERACTING WITH A DRYLINE/BOUNDARY
TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS MARGINAL,
PARTLY DUE TO WEAKER DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT. STILL, THE LATEST NBM
SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 30-40% PROBABILITY OF 12-HR QPF EXCEEDING
0.25 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE WETTER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST,
POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH,
ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO LIFT BACK UP INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, NOT TO MENTION GRADUALLY CLIMBING SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM
MOISTURE RETURN. THE LATEST HREF PAINTS A 40-50% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 50F IN WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH A 10-20% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 55F
TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS, SO LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S(F) WITH A FEW MID/UPPER 40S(F) OUT WEST. WARMER AIR WILL LIFT
BACK INTO WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING BACK NORTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY, NUDGING H85
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER TEENS(C) IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO A LITTLE
ABOVE 20C IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS UP INTO
THE 70S(F) EAST TO POTENTIALLY THE LOWER 80S(F) CLOSER TO THE
COLORADO BORDER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
FORECAST FARTHER WEST WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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