472
FXUS63 KDDC 230730
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
230 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE FOR NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING (20-50%) MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR.
- NUMEROUS (80% COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL WITH 15% COVERAGE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 156.
-ADDITIONAL STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT BRING A 15% CHANCE FOR FLOODING
EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES IT HE 60S ON FRIDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE
80S BY SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
ONE OF THE BIG UNCERTAINTIES OF THE LAST 24 HOURS WAS WOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP AROUND 12Z IN THE HAYS DODGE PRATT AREAS AND
MOVE EAST THOUGH MID MORNING, AS MOST OF THE MEMBERS OF THE HREF
CAMS WERE SUGGESTING. THIS MORNINGS RUNS DO NOT MAKE IT MUCH
MORE CLEAR WITH MOST OF THEM PRODUCING SOME TYPE OF SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS GENERALLY AREA BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FV3 MODELS, THE OTHERS ALL SHOW SOME ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING PROBABLY ONLY POSING A LIGHTING RISK OR SMALL HAIL
AS WELL WITH THE WEAKENED CAPES.
THE SURFACE PATTERN TODAY WILL DEVELOP INTO AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE KS AND CO LINE, WITH AN ATTENDANT INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THESE
FEATURES WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS MECHANISMS FOR POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL
OF THESE CAMS PRODUCE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS’S ORIGINATING
NEAR THE REGION OF THE SURFACE LOW , AND OR A MORE TRAINING MCS
FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/TROUGH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE RANGE OF OUTCOMES SUPPORTS THE RATHER HIGH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT (60-80%).
THESE HIGH PROBABILITIES LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER NEBRASKA IS THEN PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT
OVER KANSAS, INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND GENERATING
MESOSCALE LIFT ALL THE WHILE THE SPLIT FLOW WESTERLY UPPER
LEVELS SUPPORTING A SPATIOTEMPORAL TRANSITIONING MID LEVEL WARM
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE REMAINDER OF
THE 7 DAY FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE VARYING LEVELS OF
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AS THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND SHIFTS TO
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS, WHICH WILL CREATE DIFLUENT FLOW FOR LIFT TO ENHANCE THE
EASTERLY SURFACE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
THERE IS ABOUT A 20-45 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES THAT WOULD INCLUDED
THE TERMINALS AT DDC AND HYS BETWEEN ABOUT 12 AND 15Z. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO MIX OUT TO HIGHER VALUES (15-20 KTS)
AFTER 14Z AND BEGIN TO GUST AS HIGH AS 26-28 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTH. UNLESS MID LEVEL (ABOVE 8-10KFT
CIGS) DEVELOP WITH THE CONDITIONAL STORMS AROUND HYS OR DDC
AROUND 12Z, SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR AND IFR AREA WIDE. MODERATE
TO HIGH PROBABILITY (60-80%) FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS AS WELL A SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL IN THE LAST
6 HOURS OF THIS TAF.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
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