890
FXUS63 KDDC 231659
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1159 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE FOR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING (20-30%)
MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR.
- NUMEROUS (80% COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST RISK OF DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL WITH 15% COVERAGE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 156.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT BRING A 15% CHANCE FOR
FLOODING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES IT HE 60S ON FRIDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE
80S BY SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
ONE OF THE BIG UNCERTAINTIES OF THE LAST 24 HOURS WAS WOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP AROUND 12Z IN THE HAYS DODGE PRATT AREAS AND
MOVE EAST THOUGH MID MORNING, AS MOST OF THE MEMBERS OF THE HREF
CAMS WERE SUGGESTING. THIS MORNINGS RUNS DO NOT MAKE IT MUCH
MORE CLEAR WITH MOST OF THEM PRODUCING SOME TYPE OF SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS GENERALLY AREA BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FV3 MODELS, THE OTHERS ALL SHOW SOME ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING PROBABLY ONLY POSING A LIGHTING RISK OR SMALL HAIL
AS WELL WITH THE WEAKENED CAPES.
THE SURFACE PATTERN TODAY WILL DEVELOP INTO AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE KS AND CO LINE, WITH AN ATTENDANT INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THESE
FEATURES WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS MECHANISMS FOR POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL
OF THESE CAMS PRODUCE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS’S ORIGINATING
NEAR THE REGION OF THE SURFACE LOW , AND OR A MORE TRAINING MCS
FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/TROUGH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE RANGE OF OUTCOMES SUPPORTS THE RATHER HIGH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT (60-80%).
THESE HIGH PROBABILITIES LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER NEBRASKA IS THEN PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT
OVER KANSAS, INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND GENERATING
MESOSCALE LIFT ALL THE WHILE THE SPLIT FLOW WESTERLY UPPER
LEVELS SUPPORTING A SPATIOTEMPORAL TRANSITIONING MID LEVEL WARM
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE REMAINDER OF
THE 7 DAY FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE VARYING LEVELS OF
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AS THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND SHIFTS TO
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS, WHICH WILL CREATE DIFLUENT FLOW FOR LIFT TO ENHANCE THE
EASTERLY SURFACE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY AFTER 21-23Z, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES PERIODICALLY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LOW LEVEL
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR,
RESULTING IN POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
DEVELOPING GENERALLY AFTER 08-10Z. AS FOR WINDS, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING AS A STALLED FRONT BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHEAST UP INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BEGINS TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE GUSTIER WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page