359
FXUS63 KDDC 232321
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
621 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 50 TO 70% CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
**MESOSCALE DISCUSSION**
OUR SPECIAL 20Z RAOB SHOWED ABOUT 1500 J/KG CAPE, BUT THE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WAS WEAK (32 M2/S2 SRH). THIS RAOB ALSO SHOWED THAT OUR
LCL'S ARE HIGH (~1800 M). THIS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
A BIT IN THE 6 TO 7 PM PERIOD, HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL SRH IS STILL EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK (50 TO MAYBE 100 SRH) BY THIS EVENING. FORECAST
CAPE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE 5 TO 7 PM PERIOD.
THERE IS WEAK SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRETCHING FROM OAKLEY
DOWN ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THIS IS WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FIRST ALONG THIS ZONE IN THE 4 TO 6 PM PERIOD. BULK SHEAR
FROM THE RAOB IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE FOR SUPERCELLS AT 30 KT, BUT
COULD INCREASE TO 40 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WOULD BE ON
THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN THREATS IN ORDER
OF MOST LIKELY TO LEAST WOULD BE HAIL SIZE IN THE 1" TO 2.5" RANGE,
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE 60 TO 75 MPH, AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO. STORM MODE SHOULD EVOLVE TO A MORE MESSY
MODE BY MID EVENING AS STORM INTERACTIONS INCREASE AND AS UPPER LEVEL
VENTILATION FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG. IT IS NOT
EXACTLY CLEAR IN HOW THE MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREATS WILL EVOLVE AS
THESE STORMS HEAD EAST TO THE HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING, INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS THE SREF INDICATES ANOTHER COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION EJECTING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IN RESPONSE, A STALLED
BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS IS PROJECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE, PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
MID/UPPER 50S(F) DEWPOINTS SPREADING FURTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE LOWER 60S(F) MOVING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY EARLY EVENING, INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES
UPWARD OF 1500-2000 J/KG.
DESPITE A FAIRLY WEAK FIELD OF WESTERLIES ALOFT, SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM
DIURNAL HEATING BEHIND AN EXITING CLOUD SHIELD IN CENTRAL KANSAS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H5 VORT MAXIMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING, INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY. IN ACCORDANCE WITH MOST CAMS, THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS PROJECTED TO BE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY AFTER 21-22Z WITH STORMS THEN
SPREADING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HREF PAINTING A CORRIDOR OF A 70-90%
PROBABILITY FOR 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.25 OF AN INCH INITIALLY IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THEN TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE EVENING.
DEPENDENT ON LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM POTENTIAL ACTIVITY
TONIGHT, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS, DOWNSTREAM OF AN INCREASINGLY MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SURFACE LOW IS PROJECTED TO STILL BE SITUATED IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ANOTHER 24 HOURS
OF PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER, PROVIDING AMPLE INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, INTERACTING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE/ADJACENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A LESS ACTIVE
PERIOD IS FORECAST FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, LOWERING PRECIP CHANCES.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS PREVAILING
SOUTHERLIES FURTHER DRAW WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS, NOT TO
MENTION DRAW INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LATEST HREF
SHOWING A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 55F IN
WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES SLIPPING BELOW 60F IN CENTRAL KANSAS, LOOK FOR
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S(F). SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE
LOWER/MID 70S(F) WITH THE HREF SHOWING A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70F. HOWEVER, HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT
OF THE 60S(F) IN AREAS OF PROLONGED CLOUD COVER/LINGERING RAIN.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
THE LATEST CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION
(AS OF 22Z WEDNESDAY) NEAR AND NORTH OF GARDEN CITY INCREASING
IN COVERAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE DODGE CITY AND
HAYS AREAS BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. LIBERAL ALSO HAS A
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z.
THESE STORMS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, LARGE HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WEAKER
AND MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO
THESE STORMS, BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDS (BETWEEN 500 AND 1,500 FEET AGL) TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A GREATER THAN 50%
CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN AND NEAR THESE
STORMS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SUGDEN
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT
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