854
FXUS63 KDDC 240607
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
107 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 50 TO 70% CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
**MESOSCALE DISCUSSION**
WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL HAIL REPORTS BETWEEN 1" AND 2". OUR 00Z
RAOB SHOWED CAPE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO 43 KT, WHICH DOES SUPPORT THE SUPERCELL FORMATION WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. 0-1 KM SRH WAS AROUND 100
M2/S2, WHICH SHOWS THAT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT IS ON THE LOWER
SIDE. WE DID HAVE ONE SUPERCELL WITH PRETTY STRONG ROTATION NEAR
MANNING, KANSAS THAT HAS SINCE WEAKENED. SO IN THE FEW NEAR TERM
OF A 1-3 HOURS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SEVERE THREAT. STORM MODE
HAS EVOLVED A LITTLE MORE MESSY, SO THE THREAT OF LARGER HAIL MIGHT
BE SLIGHTLY REDUCED AS THIS MESSIER STORM MODE AND MORE STORM INTERACTIONS
ENSUE. SHORT TERM HRRR GUIDANCE DOES SHOW HINTS OF A LOWER HAIL SIZE
AND POSSIBLE A MORE WIND THREAT EVOLVING WITH TIME IN THE WATCH AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING, INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS THE SREF INDICATES ANOTHER COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION EJECTING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IN RESPONSE, A STALLED
BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS IS PROJECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE, PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
MID/UPPER 50S(F) DEWPOINTS SPREADING FURTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE LOWER 60S(F) MOVING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY EARLY EVENING, INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES
UPWARD OF 1500-2000 J/KG.
DESPITE A FAIRLY WEAK FIELD OF WESTERLIES ALOFT, SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM
DIURNAL HEATING BEHIND AN EXITING CLOUD SHIELD IN CENTRAL KANSAS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H5 VORT MAXIMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING, INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY. IN ACCORDANCE WITH MOST CAMS, THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS PROJECTED TO BE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY AFTER 21-22Z WITH STORMS THEN
SPREADING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HREF PAINTING A CORRIDOR OF A 70-90%
PROBABILITY FOR 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.25 OF AN INCH INITIALLY IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THEN TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE EVENING.
DEPENDENT ON LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM POTENTIAL ACTIVITY
TONIGHT, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS, DOWNSTREAM OF AN INCREASINGLY MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SURFACE LOW IS PROJECTED TO STILL BE SITUATED IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ANOTHER 24 HOURS
OF PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE VICINITY OF THE NEW
MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER, PROVIDING AMPLE INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, INTERACTING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE/ADJACENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A LESS ACTIVE
PERIOD IS FORECAST FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, LOWERING PRECIP CHANCES.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS PREVAILING
SOUTHERLIES FURTHER DRAW WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS, NOT TO
MENTION DRAW INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LATEST HREF
SHOWING A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 55F IN
WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES SLIPPING BELOW 60F IN CENTRAL KANSAS, LOOK FOR
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S(F). SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE
LOWER/MID 70S(F) WITH THE HREF SHOWING A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70F. HOWEVER, HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT
OF THE 60S(F) IN AREAS OF PROLONGED CLOUD COVER/LINGERING RAIN.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE MORNING AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. THE
OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL LEAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, MOST LIKELY IN VICINITY OF DODGE CITY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN BY 21-00Z, AND THESE
COULD BE LOCALLY SEVERE FROM KDDC TO KGCK. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY AT KHYS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WITH MVFR CIGS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT KDDC AND
KGCK OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND THEN IMPROVE BY 18Z TO
VFR WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SUGDEN
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH
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