143
FXUS63 KDDC 240902
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
402 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF T-STORMS SUNDAY EVENING IN WESTERN
KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
A BROAD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
INCREASING DUE TO SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
THE MID LEVELS FROM 700-500MB WERE REASONABLY COLD GIVEN THE
HIGH LEVEL JET SITUATED SOUTH OF KANSAS. T-STORMS WERE ONGOING
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK CAPPING. THIS
MAKES THIS EVENING'S T-STORM FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. THE EFFECTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SOUTH OF KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT IS
QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR NORTH THE LEE TROUGH CAN FORM GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL COLD POOL AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS NORTH OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WEAK CAPPING, IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH HEATING
TO GET STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
HIGHER-END SEVERE (VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN AMPLE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR) MAY BE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE SOUTH OF DODGE CITY
WHERE A DRY LINE MEETS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT (IF TEMPERATURES
WARM WELL INTO THE 70S). FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED HEATING MAY
SUPPRESS SURFACE BASED T-STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOWEVER, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. ELEVATED T-STORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE HIGH CHANCES FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTER FROM KINSLEY TO PRATT TO MEDICINE LODGE AND POINTS
EAST. ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE HIGH 20-50% CHANCES FOR 1" OR
GREATER OF RAIN IN PRATT, WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CHANCES AS
YOU HEAD WEST.
COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL SOUTH OF KANSAS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT AIR MASS RECOVERY COULD OCCUR IN UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AND THEN MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN A WEAKENED STATE FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THIS
IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARM SECTOR WILL
ADVANCE NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TROUGHING
INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS DO
NOT SHOW ORGANIZED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE AS THE
MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF KANSAS. 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO WARM TO 10+C AND MID LEVEL
COOLING IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THAT THE HIGH LEVEL JET WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS AREA. HOWEVER, ISOLATED T-STORMS COULD
FORM ALONG THE DRY LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MEADE TO CIMARRON TO
DIGHTON. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE
STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. IF THE WARM SECTOR DOES INDEED
PUSH NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS THEN HIGHS SUNDAY WOULD EASILY REACH
INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. HOWEVER, FRONTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ARE OFTEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE SO THAT THE TRUE WARM SECTOR
MAY NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. IN THIS CASE, THE BEST CHANCE OF
DRY LINE STORMS WOULD BE SOUTH OF KANSAS. BY MONDAY THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS
IN POSITIVELY TILTED FASHION, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF T-STORMS
FROM HAYS SOUTHWARD TO PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE, WITH DRIER AIR
FARTHER WEST. COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING
THIS TIME. THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SO THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SOUTH
OF KANSAS. HOWEVER WITH COLD 700-500MB TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE, THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT BY
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE MORNING AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. THE
OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL LEAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, MOST LIKELY IN VICINITY OF DODGE CITY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN BY 21-00Z, AND THESE
COULD BE LOCALLY SEVERE FROM KDDC TO KGCK. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY AT KHYS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WITH MVFR CIGS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT KDDC AND
KGCK OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND THEN IMPROVE BY 18Z TO
VFR WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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