291
FXUS63 KDDC 241943
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
243 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF T-STORMS SUNDAY EVENING IN WESTERN
KANSAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
**MESOSCALE DISCUSSION**
19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG
THE K-96 CORRIDOR. THERE ISN'T MUCH DIFFERENCE TEMPERATURE WISE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS TEMPERATURES ARE BASICALLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S IN THE COOLER SECTOR AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN THE WARMER SECTOR TO THE SOUTH. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED IN PORTIONS OF RUSH AND NESS COUNTY ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BUT SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE FOR THE TIME BEING AS BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL PRETTY WEAK (> 30 KTS).
PRESENT THERMODYNAMICS HAVE ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG SURFACE CAPE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 C IN THE 0-3KM
RANGE. THESE RATES SHOULD START TO INCREASE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TODAY'S
FORECAST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. SPC 1630Z UPDATE CONTINUES A SLIGHT
RISK ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE LINE
AND THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
70 MPH. TORNADO THREAT AT THIS POINT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTERACTS WITH A DRYLINE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WE COULD
SEE A FEW ELUTED SUPERCELLS DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SLIGHT INCREASING IN THE 850 MB WINDS BUT SFC-6KM SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE. HODOGRAPH CURVATURES SHOW A SLIGHT
SICKLE SHAPE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THEN WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT A KINK IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD STIFLE GIANT
HAIL PRODUCTION (BASEBALL OR LARGER) BUT WE COULD AT LEAST REACH
2 INCH CRITERIA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
A BROAD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
INCREASING DUE TO SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
THE MID LEVELS FROM 700-500MB WERE REASONABLY COLD GIVEN THE
HIGH LEVEL JET SITUATED SOUTH OF KANSAS. T-STORMS WERE ONGOING
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK CAPPING. THIS
MAKES THIS EVENING'S T-STORM FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. THE EFFECTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SOUTH OF KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT IS
QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR NORTH THE LEE TROUGH CAN FORM GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL COLD POOL AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS NORTH OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WEAK CAPPING, IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH HEATING
TO GET STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
HIGHER-END SEVERE (VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN AMPLE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR) MAY BE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE SOUTH OF DODGE CITY
WHERE A DRY LINE MEETS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT (IF TEMPERATURES
WARM WELL INTO THE 70S). FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED HEATING MAY
SUPPRESS SURFACE BASED T-STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOWEVER, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. ELEVATED T-STORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE HIGH CHANCES FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTER FROM KINSLEY TO PRATT TO MEDICINE LODGE AND POINTS
EAST. ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE HIGH 20-50% CHANCES FOR 1" OR
GREATER OF RAIN IN PRATT, WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CHANCES AS
YOU HEAD WEST.
COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL SOUTH OF KANSAS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT AIR MASS RECOVERY COULD OCCUR IN UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AND THEN MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN A WEAKENED STATE FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THIS
IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARM SECTOR WILL
ADVANCE NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TROUGHING
INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS DO
NOT SHOW ORGANIZED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE AS THE
MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF KANSAS. 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO WARM TO 10+C AND MID LEVEL
COOLING IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THAT THE HIGH LEVEL JET WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS AREA. HOWEVER, ISOLATED T-STORMS COULD
FORM ALONG THE DRY LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MEADE TO CIMARRON TO
DIGHTON. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE
STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. IF THE WARM SECTOR DOES INDEED
PUSH NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS THEN HIGHS SUNDAY WOULD EASILY REACH
INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. HOWEVER, FRONTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ARE OFTEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE SO THAT THE TRUE WARM SECTOR
MAY NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. IN THIS CASE, THE BEST CHANCE OF
DRY LINE STORMS WOULD BE SOUTH OF KANSAS. BY MONDAY THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS
IN POSITIVELY TILTED FASHION, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF T-STORMS
FROM HAYS SOUTHWARD TO PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE, WITH DRIER AIR
FARTHER WEST. COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING
THIS TIME. THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SO THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SOUTH
OF KANSAS. HOWEVER WITH COLD 700-500MB TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE, THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT BY
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES GENERALLY
AFTER 21-23Z. OTHERWISE, PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
IN VICINITY OF KHYS AFTER 06-08Z AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. LIGHT EAST- SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY 10 TO 20KT GENERALLY AFTER
02-04Z BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TATRO
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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