603
FXUS63 KDDC 242007
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
307 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
**MESOSCALE DISCUSSION**
19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG
THE K-96 CORRIDOR. THERE ISN'T MUCH DIFFERENCE TEMPERATURE WISE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS TEMPERATURES ARE BASICALLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S IN THE COOLER SECTOR AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
IN THE WARMER SECTOR TO THE SOUTH. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED IN PORTIONS OF RUSH AND NESS COUNTY ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BUT SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE FOR THE TIME BEING AS BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL PRETTY WEAK (> 30 KTS).
PRESENT THERMODYNAMICS HAVE ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG SURFACE CAPE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 C IN THE 0-3KM
RANGE. THESE RATES SHOULD START TO INCREASE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TODAY'S
FORECAST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. SPC 1630Z UPDATE CONTINUES A SLIGHT
RISK ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE LINE
AND THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
70 MPH. TORNADO THREAT AT THIS POINT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTERACTS WITH A DRYLINE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WE COULD
SEE A FEW ELUTED SUPERCELLS DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SLIGHT INCREASING IN THE 850 MB WINDS BUT SFC-6KM SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE. HODOGRAPH CURVATURES SHOW A SLIGHT
SICKLE SHAPE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THEN WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT A KINK IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD STIFLE GIANT
HAIL PRODUCTION (BASEBALL OR LARGER) BUT WE COULD AT LEAST REACH
2 INCH CRITERIA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH AN ATTENDANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) PICK UP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH A SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY AS THE
SREF INDICATES A WEAK/COMPACT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HELP NUDGE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NEAR THE SURFACE, A PREVAILING
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL REINFORCE A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 50S(F) TO THE LOWER 60S(F), SUPPORTING REASONABLE
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES UPWARD OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITHIN A ZONE OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS H5
VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO KICK OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, INTERACTING WITH A DRYLINE ATTENDANT TO THE SURFACE
LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SUBSEQUENT STALLED BOUNDARY IN
WESTERN KANSAS AS SUGGEST BY CAMS, NOT TO MENTION ANY REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION. THE FOCUS
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THEN SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
THE HREF SHOWS A 30-50% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.25
OF AN INCH BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH STORMS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES (60-80%) RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
AS MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
RETURNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF A RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SET UP A EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN
KANSAS WITH A PROJECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING GENERALLY ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN PROVIDING INCREASED INSTABILITY, DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STORMS THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST NBM PAINTING A WIDESPREAD 20-30% PROBABILITY FOR
12-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.25 OF AN INCH BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WITH THE HREF
INDICATING A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 50F
IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO A 20-40% PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW 55F
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S(F) TO THE
MID-50S(F). UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA, LOWERING H85
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR 5C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO AROUND
12C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE HREF SHOWS A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE 55F OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TO A
90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES NUDGING ABOVE 60F IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, SO LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F) OUT WEST
TO THE LOWER 60S(F) FARTHER EAST, ESPECIALLY IF EXPECTED EARLY
MORNING LOW LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES GENERALLY
AFTER 21-23Z. OTHERWISE, PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
IN VICINITY OF KHYS AFTER 06-08Z AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. LIGHT EAST- SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY 10 TO 20KT GENERALLY AFTER
02-04Z BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TATRO
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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