357
FXUS63 KDDC 242325
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
625 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
**MESOSCALE DISCUSSION**
23Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE MOST PROMINENT STORMS CONTINUE
TO BE THE SUPERCELLS ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER MAINLY IN
CLARK COUNTY WHERE REPORTS OF GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL HAVE BEEN
RECORDED. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 30 KTS AND
MUCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG. HODOGRAPH SOUNDINGS INDICATE
GOOD LOWER LEVEL SHEAR WITH SLIGHT BACKING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST HAIL SIZES SHOULD NOT REACH LARGER THAN TENNIS BALLS
AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH AN ATTENDANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) PICK UP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH A SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY AS THE
SREF INDICATES A WEAK/COMPACT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HELP NUDGE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NEAR THE SURFACE, A PREVAILING
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL REINFORCE A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 50S(F) TO THE LOWER 60S(F), SUPPORTING REASONABLE
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES UPWARD OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITHIN A ZONE OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS H5
VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO KICK OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, INTERACTING WITH A DRYLINE ATTENDANT TO THE SURFACE
LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SUBSEQUENT STALLED BOUNDARY IN
WESTERN KANSAS AS SUGGEST BY CAMS, NOT TO MENTION ANY REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION. THE FOCUS
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THEN SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
THE HREF SHOWS A 30-50% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.25
OF AN INCH BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH STORMS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES (60-80%) RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
AS MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
RETURNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF A RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SET UP A EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN
KANSAS WITH A PROJECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING GENERALLY ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN PROVIDING INCREASED INSTABILITY, DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STORMS THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST NBM PAINTING A WIDESPREAD 20-30% PROBABILITY FOR
12-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.25 OF AN INCH BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WITH THE HREF
INDICATING A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 50F
IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO A 20-40% PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW 55F
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S(F) TO THE
MID-50S(F). UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA, LOWERING H85
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR 5C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO AROUND
12C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE HREF SHOWS A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE 55F OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TO A
90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES NUDGING ABOVE 60F IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, SO LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F) OUT WEST
TO THE LOWER 60S(F) FARTHER EAST, ESPECIALLY IF EXPECTED EARLY
MORNING LOW LEVEL STRATUS LINGERS. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH 04Z AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY, CURRENTLY
NEAR HAYS AND BETWEEN GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY, MOVES SOUTH
TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTH. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS, THERE IS A GREATER
THAN 70% CHANCE THAT CEILINGS WILL FALL BELOW 1000 FEET AGL
ONCE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY.
ONCE THESE LOW CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE TERMINAL AREA, THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY, WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 18Z FRIDAY AND 00Z
SATURDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TATRO
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT
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