203
FXUS63 KDDC 251610
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1110 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
- WINDY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED LATE
DAY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- ANY ISOLATED T-STORMS SUNDAY EVENING COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND
PERSIST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM RISING VERY FAR ABOVE MORNING
LOWS. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES IN DODGE CITY WILL LIKELY BE A
LITTLE LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON THAN AT 6 AM. DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE MOIST LAYER EXTENDS UP TO AROUND 750MB
AND GIVEN A VEERING WIND PROFILE. AREAS OF FOG MAY FORM ACROSS
FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW. GIVEN THE STABLE LOWER
TO MID LEVEL PROFILE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND
WEAKENS.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DRY LINE. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
BY MID AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE WEAK ALONG THE DRY
LINE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF AND WHERE STORMS WILL FORM
LATER IN THE DAY FROM WEST TEXAS INTO NEBRASKA. THERE MAY BE
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS; BUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILE AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY, STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE
SEVERE (POTENTIALLY HIGH-END SEVERE) WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE CURRENT DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD BY MONDAY SO THAT ANY T-STORMS
WITH SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL KANSAS,
PROBABLY EAST OF PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AND POINTS EASTWARD.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF KANSAS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID WEEK. WITH THE FRONT BEING SOUTH OF KANSAS, MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ALONG
THE FRONT AND POINTS SOUTHWARD, WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS ONLY
HAVING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE GEPS
AND ENS INDICATE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES OF OVER .5" OF RAIN ARE
EXTREMELY LOW (LESS THAN 10%) EVEN AT MEDICINE LODGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
LOW LEVEL STRATUS PREVAILING WITHIN A NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
PRIMARILY WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BRIEFLY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, PREVAILING
AREAS OF FOG RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL, AND LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTERLY GENERALLY
AFTER 00-02Z THIS EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ074-
075-084>086.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page