235
FXUS63 KDDC 260826
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
326 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE.
- MUCH WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, ALONG WITH
VERY SMALL CHANCES FOR LATE DAY SEVERE T-STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED YESTERDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO RESULT
IN MOIST UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS; AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AFTER ANY EXISTING FOG CLEARS BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF KANSAS. THE SOLID
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 60 FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF KANSAS
COULD EXPERIENCE MID TO UPPER 60S.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH IN TWO PARTS, WITH THE FIRST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SECOND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
INITIAL FEATURE, A DRY LINE WILL SET UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN WEAKLY FORCED SITUATIONS WITH LITTLE IF ANY
MID LEVEL COOLING, IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO ASSESS WELL IN
ADVANCE WHETHER ONE OR TWO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL FORM IN
THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE, MUCH LESS PREDICT
EXACTLY WHERE. ANY LONG-LIVED STORM THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE, WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTHWESTERN
AND CENTRAL KANSAS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER, OR EVEN
ANY PRECIPITATION, WITH CHANCES AT ANY ONE POINT LESS THAN 10%.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THERE
WILL EVEN BE A SINGLE STORM. THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, WITH THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN KANSAS STAYING DRY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE FRONTAL LOCATION SOUTH OF
KANSAS, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY THIS FAR NORTH AND WEST.
ONCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY STORMS GET GOING ALONG THE FRONT, IT IS
DIFFICULT TO GET PROPAGATION BACK NORTHWARD UNLESS THE SYSTEM IS
NORTHWARD PROPAGATING (INSTEAD OF EASTWARD). THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE VERY SLIM CHANCES (10-20%) FOR RAINFALL GREATER THAN
.5" ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INCLUDING MEDICINE LODGE, WITH
EVEN LESSER CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS EAST OF HERE BY THURSDAY, WITH ANY RAIN ALSO BEING WELL
EAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LIFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH THE LOWEST CIGS WITH DIURNAL COOLING AROUND 12Z.
AREA OF FOG MAY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT KGCK
BETWEEN 09 AND 14Z GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS TO IFR AFTER 17 IS LIKELY WITH LIMITED INSOLATION THROUGH
A THICK CLOUD DECK. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR,
LIGHT DRIZZLE IS LIKELY AFTER 09Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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