896
FXUS63 KDDC 150516
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1216 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY (CHANCES 20% OR LESS AT ANY GIVEN SPOT).
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST TO 40-50 MPH ALONG INTERSTATE 70 FOR 1-2 HOURS
AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM, WITH LOWER SPEEDS FARTHER SOUTH.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH MAINLY 80S FOR HIGHS. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LARGE TROUGH, A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
EVENING. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF KANSAS WHERE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED T-STORM OR TWO CAN'T
BE RULED OUT ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE DURING THE EVENING.
THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS IS SUNDAY. THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL STILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. HOWEVER,
ACROSS THE PLAINS, IT IS OFTEN THE CASE THAT THE MOST SEVERE,
ISOLATED STORMS OCCUR WITH WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING SO THAT
ONLY ONE OR TWO STORMS DEVELOP. IF A STORM DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECT VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE A TORNADO. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS
WILL NOT EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DRY LINE LOCATION; BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW IT
EXTENDING FROM DIGHTON SOUTHWARD TO CIMARRON SO THAT THE MOST
FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EAST OF THIS LINE IN THE MOST
AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S,
WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY ARE STILL NOT KNOWN WITH HIGH
CERTAINTY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES,
THE LOCATION OF THE DRY LINE WILL BE CRUCIAL. IF THE DEEP
MOISTURE IS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS, THEN THAT IS WHERE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE. BUT IF THE DRY LINE HANGS BACK IN
CENTRAL KANSAS, THEN LOCATIONS SUCH AS MEDICINE LODGE AND PRATT
WOULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS.
THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE ENS AND GEPS HAVE CONSISTENTLY
FAVORED CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH
MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES WEST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE
CITY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL THE SEVERE WEATHER MODES AS THIS
DEPENDS ON MANY FACTORS SUCH AS HOW ISOLATED THE STORMS ARE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S, WITH
SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY'S SYSTEM, DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, UNLESS THE SYSTEM SLOWS WAY DOWN. A
SLOWER SOLUTION IS SHOWN BY A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS; BUT THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
POST COLD FRONT WINDS WILL CONTINUE BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS WE SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AT
15-20 KTS AND WIND GUSTS AT 25-30 KTS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. AFTER
00Z WE SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY TO BELOW 12 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-063>065-077>079.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...TATRO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page