068
FXUS63 KDDC 151600
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE WORK WEEK
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON TAP WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COMING THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
07Z SURFACE AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH HAS PASSED THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS WHICH DROPPED THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-15 (C) AND POST FRONTAL WINDS WERE AS HIGH AS
60-70 MPH EARLIER IN THE EVENING. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE THE STRONGEST
GUSTS AT AROUND 30 MPH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A 75-80 KT JET STREAK ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 17-19 (C) THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND TURNING MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A NEW
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO. TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE 500-700 MB LEVELS MOVES
EAST WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD BE DRY WITH BRIEF GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS. FRIDAY
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AT 14-18 (C). BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW THE JET STREAM BECOMING MORE ACTIVE IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS BY SATURDAY EVENING AND WITH A STRENGTHENING JET STREAK ON
SUNDAY FORM INTO A CLOSED LOW BY SUNDAY EVENING. CURRENT TRENDS IN
THE TRACK WOULD TAKE THE BETTER ENERGY AND LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE OF THE DRIER AIR INTRUSION
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THIS TIME. NBM FORECAST DEWPOINTS SHOW A
PRONOUNCED DRYLINE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WHERE THIS LINE SETS UP
WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS STORMS. CHANCES OF STORMS (20-30%) AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME SEEMS MORE FOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND ESPECIALLY MORESO INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED.
.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. WINDS WILL BE SW TO NW 5-15 KT TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A FROPA IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS
WITH NW WINDS 15-20 WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT IN ITS WAKE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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