104
FXUS63 KDDC 152320
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT
- DRY AND PLEASANT FRIDAY
- CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY EAST WEEKEND ONWARD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH MIGHT PROVIDE NORTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER, BUT THAT IS ABOUT EXCITING AS IT WILL GET. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES 40S NORTHWEST TO 50S SOUTHEAST.
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A FROPA. HIGHS
TOMORROW SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 70S NORTHWEST TO THE 80S
SOUTHEAST.
BY SATURDAY IN SUNDAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
CARVE OUT WEST OF THE FA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARM SECTOR TO
RETURN NORTHWARD WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. A
DRYLINE WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP ACROSS THE FA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS DRYLINE IS STILL UNCLEAR. THE DRYLINE
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ON. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP, THEY WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE GIVEN THE AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND BULK SHEAR THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE. HAVE THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES, WHICH IS A
SEASONABLY FAVORED POSITION OF THE DRYLINE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE NEXT BUSINESS WEEK IS LOOKING TO FEATURE
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
PLAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THEIR
ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE NBM POPS AND TEMPS GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, REACHING THE 14-19 KT RANGE WITH
GUSTS OF 24-29 KTS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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