042
FXUS63 KDDC 160501
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1201 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT
- DRY AND PLEASANT FRIDAY
- CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY EAST WEEKEND ONWARD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH MIGHT PROVIDE NORTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER, BUT THAT IS ABOUT EXCITING AS IT WILL GET. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES 40S NORTHWEST TO 50S SOUTHEAST.
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A FROPA. HIGHS
TOMORROW SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 70S NORTHWEST TO THE 80S
SOUTHEAST.
BY SATURDAY IN SUNDAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
CARVE OUT WEST OF THE FA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARM SECTOR TO
RETURN NORTHWARD WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. A
DRYLINE WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP ACROSS THE FA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS DRYLINE IS STILL UNCLEAR. THE DRYLINE
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ON. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP, THEY WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE GIVEN THE AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND BULK SHEAR THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE. HAVE THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES, WHICH IS A
SEASONABLY FAVORED POSITION OF THE DRYLINE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE NEXT BUSINESS WEEK IS LOOKING TO FEATURE
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
PLAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THEIR
ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE NBM POPS AND TEMPS GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z AT ALL TERMINALS SUSTAINED AT 15
KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z TO BELOW 12 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...TATRO
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