731
FXUS63 KDDC 161758
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1258 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND MILD FRIDAY
- STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY EVENING
- IMPACTFUL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL KANSAS SHAPING UP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
07Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A PASSING
500- 700 MB SHORTWAVE ALONG THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ROUGHLY AROUND SYRACUSE. A
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS SITUATED ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF THE SURFACE LOW IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COOLER AIR IS ENTERING INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
OVERALL FOR TODAY THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE AND SURFACE LOW SHOULD
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE ASSOCIATED MIXING AND TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND OUR SEASONAL AVERAGES AS WE GET INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
TONIGHT A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY EVENING.
MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS
IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AS THE WINDS TURN BACK
TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE THE BEST AREA OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT MORESO INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY IS SHOWING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AN IMPACTFUL SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT FOR CENTRAL KANSAS. IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA
SPECIFICALLY THE AREAS THAT ARE SHOWING THE HIGHER RISK OF IMPACTFUL
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A PRATT TO NESS CITY
LINE. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE ROCKIES TURNING NEGATIVELY TILTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG PVA ENTERING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND LARGE AREA OF
MOISTURE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS SITUATED
ROUGHLY FROM PRATT TO NEAR GOODLAND. SOUTH OF THE FRONT A STRONG
DRYLINE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND BASED OFF OF NBM
PROBABILITIES OF DEW POINT TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 55 DEGREES
WE SEE THAT AREAS FROM DIGHTON TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND ON WEST
ARE 10% OR LESS (NEGATING ANY STORM OR SEVERE THREAT) AND AREAS
FROM MEDICINE LODGE TO NESS CITY ON EAST ARE 70-90%. BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50 KTS AS THE 850 MB WINDS
INCREASE AFTER 21Z. SKEW T SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS IN THE 700 MB RANGE AND HODOGRAPH
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND TURNING ALMOST
STRAIGHT TOWARDS THE ANVIL LAYER. THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALL THIS IS TO SAY THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SETUP WE SEE 3 DAYS OUT WILL HAVE AN
ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL (>2 INCHES) WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
GIANT (UP TO SOFTBALL SIZED) HAIL AND TORNADOES IN CENTRAL
KANSAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY 09-12Z AND INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, BUT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP JUST AFTER
THE PERIOD AT KDDC AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...FINCH
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