354  
FXUS63 KDDC 172340  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING IN POTENTIAL FOR LATER  
TODAY WITH ONLY THE COMANCHE/BARBER COUNTY AREA STILL HOLDING  
A NOTABLE (>20%) CHANCE  
 
- STRONG SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED IN  
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY, WITH A NOTABLE AMOUNT OF  
UNCERTAINTY STILL LINGERING  
 
- A LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS SW KANSAS MONDAY  
THAT MAY STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE THRESHOLDS UPON REACHING THE  
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025  
 
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT  
HAVE MOVED OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  
THIS WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS LOWER TODAY WITH THE COOLEST HIGHS THAT SW  
KANSAS HAS SEEN THIS WEEK. ELSEWHERE, RAP MESOANALYSIS PORTRAYS A  
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODEST WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 15-20  
MPH. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NM/TX  
BORDER WITH A DRYLINE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT CAN  
FLOW THIS FAR NORTH BEFORE THE LATE AFTERNOON. CAMS SIMULATE  
CONVECTION WHERE THE INDIVIDUAL CAMS HAVE THE MOISTURE REACHING,  
WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE  
LIMITED SPATIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE CWA. MOST CAMS  
HAD 60F DEWPOINTS JUST BARELY CREEPING INTO THE CWA, BUT THE  
MOISTURE HAS NOT ADVECTED LIKE EXPECTED AND CONTINUES TO LIMIT STORM  
CHANCES AS THE FINAL OUTCOME APPEARS DRIER AND DRIER. IF THESE  
TRENDS CONTINUE, SW KANSAS MAY MISS OUT OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTIRELY.  
DESPITE THIS PESSIMISM, ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE A 35-40% CHANCE FOR  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS COMANCHE AND BARBER COUNTIES. THE  
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE  
CONVECTION. IF DEVELOPMENT IS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THAN CURRENTLY  
EXPECTED OR DOES NOT PROPAGATE AS FAR NORTH AS FORECAST, THE AMOUNT  
OF CONVECTION THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE WILL BE LIMITED IF ANY AT ALL.  
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAVORED WITH LARGE (TWO INCH) HAIL  
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. OTHER LIMITERS IN A TOP-END SEVERE THREAT  
IS THE UPPER-DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND CAP DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION IS  
EXPECTED TO BREACH THE CAP, BUT MAY NOT CONTINUE NORTHWARD ENOUGH  
INTO KANSAS. WITH ALL THE CAVEATS ASIDE, STRONG THERMODYNAMIC  
INGREDIENTS EXIST WITH NAMNST FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVING >2000 J/KG  
CAPE, >300 M2/S2 0-3KM SRH, AND >40 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  
 
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE FORECASTED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE  
CWA WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM AROUND 6 AM UNTIL AROUND 9 AM.  
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LACK OF MOISTURE MAY REDUCE THE IMPACT ANY  
FOG/STRATUS MAY HAVE. ENSEMBLES HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND INTO  
THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION. LATER  
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBILITIES RETURN.  
 
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH SUNDAY ESPECIALLY AS INITIATION IS  
HEAVILY RELIANT ON SATURDAY'S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE DEEP TROUGH  
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COLORADO BY TOMORROW, ATTEMPTING TO BUILD  
OFF OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON SATURDAY TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE  
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ENSEMBLES AND MODELS HAVE A  
SUBSTANTIVE DRYLINE DEEPENING AND MOVING AROUND THE HIGHWAY 283  
CORRIDOR. CAMS HAVE INITIATION STARTING ALONG THE EASTERN COLUMN OF  
COUNTIES AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. IF THIS TREND HOLDS, THE OVERALL  
IMPACT ON THE CWA AS A WHOLE WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER, IF SUPERCELLS  
ARE ABLE TO QUICKLY FORM AND STRENGTHEN, ALL SEVERE THREATS ARE  
POSSIBLE INCLUDING GIANT LARGE (4 INCH HAIL). UNLIKE STORMS ON  
SATURDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IS NOTABLE WITH SUBTLE  
CVA AND DECENT CORRELATION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. CIN FROM  
NAMNST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE EXCEEDING 200 J/KG, AND IS THE  
GREATEST LIMITER REGARDING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT OTHER THAN THE  
MOISTURE SUPPLY. ASSUMING THIS CAN BE OVERCOME, CAPE VALUES OVER  
3000 J/KG AND SRH VALUES AROUND 250 AT SFC-1KM/SFC-3KM WILL BE  
PLENTY FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE. THE THREAT FOR  
TORNADOES MAXIMIZES AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AROUND 0Z, BUT  
IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL HAVE EXITED THE  
FORECAST AREA BY THEN.  
 
MONDAY HAS ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES AS THE TROUGH  
AND DEEP LOW MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LONGER-RANGED CAMS HAVE A  
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING. AS  
THESE STORMS MOVE EASTWARD, THE STORMS WILL ENTER A MORE FAVORABLE  
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE EASTERN COUNTIES YET AGAIN  
WITH VERY HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG WITH THE BETTER AREAS  
WITH MOISTURE.  
 
BEYOND MONDAY, ENSEMBLES HAVE A DRY, WARMING TREND FOR SW KANSAS.  
HIGHS ON TUESDAY STARTING IN THE 60/70S AND ENDING IN THE 80/90S BY  
THE END OF THE WEEK. LONG-RANGED ENSEMBLES HINT AT CHANCES (15-20%)  
FOR PRECIPITATION TO RETURN ON FRIDAY, BUT WITH THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS  
OF STORMS IN THE WAY AND TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY FUTURE FORECASTS WILL  
PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THE POTENTIAL.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025  
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VFR FLYING  
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, ALONG WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST  
WINDS AOA 12 KTS, AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE, MOIST  
ADVECTION ON THE BACK OF THE SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A  
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT CIGS WILL RISE  
BACK INTO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IMPROVEMENT  
WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS  
INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 30-35 KTS.  
 
 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...KBJ  
AVIATION...SPRINGER  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab KS Page
Main Text Page