742
FXUS63 KDDC 180454
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1154 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING IN POTENTIAL FOR LATER
TODAY WITH ONLY THE COMANCHE/BARBER COUNTY AREA STILL HOLDING
A NOTABLE (>20%) CHANCE
- STRONG SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY, WITH A NOTABLE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL LINGERING
- A LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS SW KANSAS MONDAY
THAT MAY STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE THRESHOLDS UPON REACHING THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
HAVE MOVED OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS LOWER TODAY WITH THE COOLEST HIGHS THAT SW
KANSAS HAS SEEN THIS WEEK. ELSEWHERE, RAP MESOANALYSIS PORTRAYS A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 15-20
MPH. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NM/TX
BORDER WITH A DRYLINE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT CAN
FLOW THIS FAR NORTH BEFORE THE LATE AFTERNOON. CAMS SIMULATE
CONVECTION WHERE THE INDIVIDUAL CAMS HAVE THE MOISTURE REACHING,
WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE
LIMITED SPATIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE CWA. MOST CAMS
HAD 60F DEWPOINTS JUST BARELY CREEPING INTO THE CWA, BUT THE
MOISTURE HAS NOT ADVECTED LIKE EXPECTED AND CONTINUES TO LIMIT STORM
CHANCES AS THE FINAL OUTCOME APPEARS DRIER AND DRIER. IF THESE
TRENDS CONTINUE, SW KANSAS MAY MISS OUT OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTIRELY.
DESPITE THIS PESSIMISM, ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE A 35-40% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS COMANCHE AND BARBER COUNTIES. THE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE MOISTURE AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION. IF DEVELOPMENT IS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED OR DOES NOT PROPAGATE AS FAR NORTH AS FORECAST, THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE WILL BE LIMITED IF ANY AT ALL.
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAVORED WITH LARGE (TWO INCH) HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. OTHER LIMITERS IN A TOP-END SEVERE THREAT
IS THE UPPER-DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND CAP DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BREACH THE CAP, BUT MAY NOT CONTINUE NORTHWARD ENOUGH
INTO KANSAS. WITH ALL THE CAVEATS ASIDE, STRONG THERMODYNAMIC
INGREDIENTS EXIST WITH NAMNST FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVING >2000 J/KG
CAPE, >300 M2/S2 0-3KM SRH, AND >40 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE FORECASTED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE
CWA WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM AROUND 6 AM UNTIL AROUND 9 AM.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LACK OF MOISTURE MAY REDUCE THE IMPACT ANY
FOG/STRATUS MAY HAVE. ENSEMBLES HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND INTO
THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION. LATER
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBILITIES RETURN.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH SUNDAY ESPECIALLY AS INITIATION IS
HEAVILY RELIANT ON SATURDAY'S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE DEEP TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COLORADO BY TOMORROW, ATTEMPTING TO BUILD
OFF OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON SATURDAY TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ENSEMBLES AND MODELS HAVE A
SUBSTANTIVE DRYLINE DEEPENING AND MOVING AROUND THE HIGHWAY 283
CORRIDOR. CAMS HAVE INITIATION STARTING ALONG THE EASTERN COLUMN OF
COUNTIES AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. IF THIS TREND HOLDS, THE OVERALL
IMPACT ON THE CWA AS A WHOLE WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER, IF SUPERCELLS
ARE ABLE TO QUICKLY FORM AND STRENGTHEN, ALL SEVERE THREATS ARE
POSSIBLE INCLUDING GIANT LARGE (4 INCH HAIL). UNLIKE STORMS ON
SATURDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IS NOTABLE WITH SUBTLE
CVA AND DECENT CORRELATION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. CIN FROM
NAMNST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE EXCEEDING 200 J/KG, AND IS THE
GREATEST LIMITER REGARDING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT OTHER THAN THE
MOISTURE SUPPLY. ASSUMING THIS CAN BE OVERCOME, CAPE VALUES OVER
3000 J/KG AND SRH VALUES AROUND 250 AT SFC-1KM/SFC-3KM WILL BE
PLENTY FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE. THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES MAXIMIZES AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AROUND 0Z, BUT
IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL HAVE EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA BY THEN.
MONDAY HAS ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES AS THE TROUGH
AND DEEP LOW MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LONGER-RANGED CAMS HAVE A
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING. AS
THESE STORMS MOVE EASTWARD, THE STORMS WILL ENTER A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE EASTERN COUNTIES YET AGAIN
WITH VERY HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG WITH THE BETTER AREAS
WITH MOISTURE.
BEYOND MONDAY, ENSEMBLES HAVE A DRY, WARMING TREND FOR SW KANSAS.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY STARTING IN THE 60/70S AND ENDING IN THE 80/90S BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. LONG-RANGED ENSEMBLES HINT AT CHANCES (15-20%)
FOR PRECIPITATION TO RETURN ON FRIDAY, BUT WITH THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS IN THE WAY AND TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY FUTURE FORECASTS WILL
PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THE POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
ALL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS AFTER 15Z WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20-25 KTS AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT
RANGE AT TIMES. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ENTERING INTO THE PLAINS
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREATS MAINLY FOR DDC AND HYS BETWEEN 19Z-01Z.
AT LBL...CLOUD CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 10-13Z AND THEN VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
AT GCK...CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 10-15Z
AND THEN RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY.
AT DDC...CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
BETWEEN 10-15Z WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AFTER 15Z. WITH A WARM FRONT AND
DRY LINE INTERSECTION AND THE EROSION OF THE CAP ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR DDC AFTER 19Z AND PROB30
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCLUDED BETWEEN 19-23Z.
AT HYS CLOUD CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
BETWEEN 10-18Z AS THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LAST IN THIS AREA THE
LONGEST. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THEY
WILL BE AROUND HYS BETWEEN 20Z-01Z AND PROB30 IS INCLUDED IN
THE TAF.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...TATRO
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