271
FXUS63 KDDC 181848
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
148 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH HIGH IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY WITH ALL HAZARDS IN PLAY (LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
TORNADOES)
- TIME FRAME AND LOCATION OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND EAST
OF 283 BETWEEN 3-8 PM
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY MAINLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
A DRY LINE FRONT INTERSECTION IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL
SURGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY 4 PM. THE WARM FRONT
WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE AIR MASS OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS STILL CAPPED BY THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER;
BUT THIS WILL ERODE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 55-65 KTS WILL BE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORMS. 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
VALUES WILL START OUT AROUND 150-200 M2/S2 AND INCREASE TO AS
HIGH AS 250 M2/S2 AFTER 23Z AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 40-45 KTS, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO BECOME
TORNADIC. T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM (21-22Z) AND
VERY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE TO GIANT HAIL AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 10 PM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
07Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH AN
INTENSIFYING JET STREAK IN CENTRAL ARIZONA. A 999 MB SURFACE LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR PUEBLO, CO WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE KANSAS-
OKLAHOMA BORDER AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE INTO TEXAS. OF NOTE WITH YESTERDAY'S THUNDERSTORMS
STAYING FURTHER SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE STAYING
TO THE SOUTH SO FAR NO HINT OF A LINGERING COLD POOL OR LOW CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED AT THIS TIME AND IF THIS CONTINUES THIS WILL BE A BIG
FACTOR IN THE FORECAST TODAY.
THE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP TODAY WILL START THIS MORNING AS THE JET
STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY TO
AROUND 100 KTS AND THUS TURNING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH NEGATIVELY
TILTED WITH DIFLUENT FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL ALSO INCREASE CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE AND THE SURFACE LOW IN
EASTERN COLORADO SHOULD DEEPENS TO AROUND 990 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND MOVE TO NEAR GOODLAND, KS BY 00Z. WITH THE INTENSIFYING TROUGH
THE DRYLINE SHOULD START RECEIVING MOMENTUM TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST
AND HREF SOLUTIONS PUT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRIER AIR ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A SCOTT CITY TO ASHLAND LINE BY MID AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE SLIGHT VARIATION IN THE TRIPLE POINT AXIS OF THE
DRYLINE, WARM FRONT, AND SURFACE LOW/OCCLUDED FRONT BUT THE GENERAL
LOCATION WOULD BE NEAR DODGE CITY BY 3 PM. HRRR TRENDS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING LESS LOW CLOUDS AND BETTER HEATING IN THE WARM FRONT SECTOR
TODAY AND SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE ANY CAP THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
HIGHER MOISTURE REGION WOULD EASILY ERODE WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
INCREASE THE RISK OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
THE TRIPLE POINT. CAMS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OF A
LINE OF SUPERCELL STORMS DEVELOPING FROM A WAKEENEY TO ST. JOHN LINE
BETWEEN 3-8PM THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER ANYWHERE EAST OF 283 WILL HAVE
A PRIME ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. CURVED HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND ELONGATION IN THE ANVIL LAYER WOULD SUGGEST ROTATING
UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE LARGE TO GIANT HAIL (2-4 INCHES). AFTER 21Z THE
850 MB WINDS START TO RAMP UP TO 45-50 KTS AND THIS WILL GREATLY
INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK AND ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO RISK. WHAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE MORNING IS HOW STRONG THE CAP WILL BE AND THE CAP WILL
BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDS AND LACK OF SUN WE WILL
GET THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE SITUATED IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 8PM AND THE DRY LINE SHOULD BE PUSHED INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY THIS TIME.
MONDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BUT WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE DRY LINE SETS UP. HREF AND SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE FAVORING ALONG AND EAST OF 281 AND PERHAPS EVEN
FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE I-135 CORRIDOR WHICH WOULD PUT MOST OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK OUT OF OUR AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER LOW IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IN LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THESE AREAS. SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WILL BE LESS IN THESE AREAS AS THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING AND LEADING TO HIGH BASED STORMS BUT THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL BE GOOD THAT SOME LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN QUARTERS ARE
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS LREF ENSEMBLES
SHOW A ZONAL TO AT TIMES RIDGING PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WHICH WOULD PUT US BACK INTO A DRIER AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT HYS. STRONG WINDS WILL START FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS. THROUGH THE PERIOD WINDS WILL SHIFT
CLOCKWISE ENDING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. GCK COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 40
KTS SHORTLY INTO THE PERIOD. HYS HAS THE MOST DIFFICULT AND
COMPLICATED TAF, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON AND OFF BETWEEN 23-3Z
WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY HAIL; LOW CLOUD BASES FROM
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
ADDITIONALLY, HYS IS FORECAST TO SEE LLWS AROUND 4-6Z BEFORE CLOUD
COVER LIFTS RESTORING VFR AS THE FLIGHT CATEGORY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...FINCH
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...KBJ
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