185
FXUS63 KDDC 182303
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
603 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH HIGH IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY WITH GIANT (UP TO 4 INCHES) HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
TORNADOES ALONG AND EAST OF 283 BETWEEN 3-8 PM
- A LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS SW KANSAS MONDAY
THAT MAY STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE THRESHOLDS UPON REACHING THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
- DRY AND WARM MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES (20-30%
VIA ENSEMBLES) RETURN ON FRIDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
A DRY LINE FRONT INTERSECTION IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL
SURGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY 4 PM. THE WARM FRONT
WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE AIR MASS OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS STILL CAPPED BY THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER;
BUT THIS WILL ERODE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 55-65 KTS WILL BE STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORMS. 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
VALUES WILL START OUT AROUND 150-200 M2/S2 AND INCREASE TO AS
HIGH AS 250 M2/S2 AFTER 23Z AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO 40-45 KTS, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO BECOME
TORNADIC. T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM (21-22Z) AND
VERY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE TO GIANT HAIL AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 10 PM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
CURRENT SURFACE AND RAP MESOANALYSIS ARE CONFIRMING THE FORECASTED
TRAJECTORY OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS SETS UP FOR A DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS KANSAS WITH
ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON IF/WHERE STORMS ARE
ABLE IT INITIATE, BUT IF THEY DO THE STORMS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO AN
ENVIRONMENT ABLE AND WAITING TO NURTURE THE STORMS INTO STRONG ONES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO GIANT (4 INCH) HAIL, STRONG TORNADOES,
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WITH THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL KICKING OFF
LATER INTO THE EVENING AROUND 7 PM AS THE LLJ INCREASES. THE WIND
THREAT IS RELATIVELY MINOR, BUT SEVERE GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG STORMS. NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE
FORECASTED TO GUST AS STRONG AS 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CO/KS
BORDER AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG AND DEEPENING LOW.
WITH RESPECT TO THE ENVIRONMENT THE MESOSCALE UPDATE PORTION OF THE
AFD WILL GO INTO MORE DETAIL, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IF THEY CAN INITIATE BOTH IN REGARDS TO SURFACE
PARAMETERS AND UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE LOW. ENSEMBLES HAVE SUFFICIENT DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS NOTABLE CVA AT 500 MB. CAM TRENDS CONTINUE TO
BE MORE BULLISH ON A DRY INTRUSION DEVELOPING AROUND 700 MB INTO THE
EVENING. BOTH THE RAP AND NAMNST FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE
MORE THAN OPTIMISTIC WITH CAPE VALUES >3000 J/KG AND SRH VALUES >250
M2/S2. COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND A NICELY CURVED HODOGRAPH, THE
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS FOR VERY STRONG SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE. ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING ONCE THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND
THE DRY INTRUSION EXPANDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LONGER-TRACKED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 6-7 PM.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE UNCERTAINTY OF INITIATION. STRATUS FROM
EARLIER TODAY LINGERED LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, WHICH
WOULD MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO BREAK THE CAP, ALTHOUGH
CAMS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH CAP EXISTS. CAMS CAN NOT DECIDE
WHERE TO INITIATE, HOW MUCH STORMS WILL DEVELOP, AND HOW LONG THE
DEVELOPMENT WINDOW WILL LAST. THE NAMNST HAS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT
CONTAINED TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA, WHILE THE HRRR HAS
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS FIRING AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. THAT FAR
WEST WOULD HAVE LESS CAP WITH THE TRADE-OFF OF A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, IF THEY STORMS CAN INITIATE AND SURVIVE LONG
ENOUGH TO ACCESS THE PRIME ATMOSPHERE FARTHER EAST, THE VERY STRONG
SEVERE STORMS MENTIONED ARE STILL MORE THAN POSSIBLE. THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS WILL BE PIVOTAL ON DETERMINING IF TODAY IS CLOSER TO AN
OUTBREAK OR A BUST.
MONDAY HAS ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED AS THE TROUGH AND
DEEP LOW MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CAMS HAVE A LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING. AS THESE STORMS
MOVE EASTWARD, THE STORMS WILL ENTER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE EASTERN COUNTIES YET AGAIN WITH VERY
HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG WITH THE BETTER AREAS WITH
MOISTURE. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS A
LOT LOWER FOR THE CWA COMPARED TO THE SETUP ON SUNDAY. IT REMAINS TO
BE SEE HOW STORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY WILL IMPACT THE ENVIRONMENT
ON MONDAY.
BEYOND MONDAY, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE A DRY, WARM TREND FOR SW
KANSAS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY FORECASTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S/ LOWER
80S. THE REST OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH CONTINUED
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WAVE OF STORM
CHANCES RETURNING ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
A UNCERTAIN TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOW STRATUS/FOG
HAS CURRENT VISIBILITIES AT DDC AT UNDER A MILE. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER IT CAN EXPAND TO OTHER TERMINALS WITH SOME COVERAGE
STRETCHING TO HYS. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR ALL SITES, BUT ESPECIALLY DDC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP SO ONLY DDC HAS THE INCLUSION IN THE TAF WITH IT EXPECTED TO
STAY TO THE EAST OF GCK AND LBL WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN HYS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...FINCH
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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