251
FXUS63 KDDC 190723
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
223 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OF HAIL UP TO QUARTERS
- DRY AND MILD FOR MID WEEK
- NEXT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
07Z SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE TO
THE EAST WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND WEST
OF THE FRONT DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30S AND 40S. ANOTHER
ROUND OF NON SEVERE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR HAYS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE 995 SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS.
TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
TODAY. THE LESS CONFIDENT AREA WILL BE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN THESE AREAS
WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THE INITIAL WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVING CLOSER TO
THE I-135 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND THUS MOST OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SWEPT OUT BY THE FRONT. HOWEVER IF THE FRONT IS
SLOWER TO MOVE THAN WHAT MODELS THINK THEN SEVERE POTENTIAL IN OUR
EASTERN ZONES WILL BE HIGHER AS STORMS WILL HAVE OVER 4000 J/KG CAPE
AND 40-50 KT 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS THE NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WITH THE
MENTIONED LACK OF MOISTURE IN THESE REGIONS CAPE WILL BE MODEST AT
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY TRIGGERED
BY THE DYNAMIC LIFT AND SECOND COLD FRONT. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED TO MAINLY SOME STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE. THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE 700 MB LIFT INTENSIFIES AND THE
500 MB JET STREAK MOVES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WE SHOULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
STORMS SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOR THE MIDWEEK LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TURNING MORE ZONAL AND WITH NO SIGNS OF ANY STORM SYSTEMS WE SHOULD
STAY DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE LIFT NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
A UNCERTAIN TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOW STRATUS/FOG
HAS CURRENT VISIBILITIES AT DDC AT UNDER A MILE. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER IT CAN EXPAND TO OTHER TERMINALS WITH SOME COVERAGE
STRETCHING TO HYS. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR ALL SITES, BUT ESPECIALLY DDC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP SO ONLY DDC HAS THE INCLUSION IN THE TAF WITH IT EXPECTED TO
STAY TO THE EAST OF GCK AND LBL WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN HYS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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