038
FXUS63 KDDC 191011
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
511 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OF HAIL UP TO QUARTERS
- DRY AND MILD FOR MID WEEK
- NEXT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
07Z SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE TO
THE EAST WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND WEST
OF THE FRONT DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30S AND 40S. ANOTHER
ROUND OF NON SEVERE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR HAYS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE 995 SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS.
TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
TODAY. THE LESS CONFIDENT AREA WILL BE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN THESE AREAS
WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THE INITIAL WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVING CLOSER TO
THE I-135 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND THUS MOST OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SWEPT OUT BY THE FRONT. HOWEVER IF THE FRONT IS
SLOWER TO MOVE THAN WHAT MODELS THINK THEN SEVERE POTENTIAL IN OUR
EASTERN ZONES WILL BE HIGHER AS STORMS WILL HAVE OVER 4000 J/KG CAPE
AND 40-50 KT 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS THE NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WITH THE
MENTIONED LACK OF MOISTURE IN THESE REGIONS CAPE WILL BE MODEST AT
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY TRIGGERED
BY THE DYNAMIC LIFT AND SECOND COLD FRONT. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED TO MAINLY SOME STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE. THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE 700 MB LIFT INTENSIFIES AND THE
500 MB JET STREAK MOVES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WE SHOULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
STORMS SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOR THE MIDWEEK LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TURNING MORE ZONAL AND WITH NO SIGNS OF ANY STORM SYSTEMS WE SHOULD
STAY DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE LIFT NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
POST FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15-25
KTS AND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
OF COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO GROW IN COVERAGE AFTER 21Z AND ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z FOR
GCK, DDC, AND LBL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL UP TO
QUARTERS AND BRIEF DOWNBURST WINDS TO 50 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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