307
FXUS63 KDDC 191930
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
230 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
..UPDATED DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING, CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS.
- DRY, MILD AND QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A CUMULUS FIELD EXPANDING
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES, AND MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY HAS TRANSITIONED EAST OF SW KS. STILL, RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, AND COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES, WILL
RESULT IN MODEST INSTABLITY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE PRIMARY
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SE COLORADO AND ADJOINING SW KS THROUGH 7 PM,
THEN TRACK EASTWARD THIS EVENING. MULTICELL CONVECTION WILL
PREVAIL, WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL TO 1 INCH AND
WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL CLEAR THE SKY
RAPIDLY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET, DRY AND UNSEASONABLY CONVECTIVELY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. NWLY
MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL DIRECT GULF MOISTURE SUPPLY AWAY FROM SW KS
THROUGH THURSDAY, AND THE FORECAST IS COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS EXCHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AVERAGING WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF LATE MAY CLIMATOLOGY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FRIDAY APPEARS MINIMAL, AS
BROAD MIDLEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS. OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND,
SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL REESTABLISH, DOWNSTREAM OF MODEST
TROUGHING APPROACHING FROM THE ROCKIES. MOISTURE WILL FINALLY
INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MOST EVIDENT ON SATURDAY. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY, AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH
ARRIVES, BUT AN ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT WILL LIKELY RESTRICT ANY
SEVERE RISK WELL SOUTH OF SW KS. NBM POPS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ARE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY (25-54%) AND THESE WERE
ACCEPTED. IN GENERAL, NO SYNOPTICALLY EVIDENT SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS ARE EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE, FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, AS
WE ENTER THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF OUR SEVERE WEATHER SEASON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 03Z TUE. CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS
IS HIGHEST AT LBL, WHERE -TSRA WAS INCLUDED, BUT ONLY MENTIONED
VCTS/CB AT GCK/DDC FOR NOW. KEPT THE HYS TAF DRY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AFTER 00Z TUE, GUSTING
25-30 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
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