169
FXUS63 KDDC 192345
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING, CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS.
- DRY, MILD AND QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A CUMULUS FIELD EXPANDING
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES, AND MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY HAS TRANSITIONED EAST OF SW KS. STILL, RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, AND COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES, WILL
RESULT IN MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE COLORADO AND ADJOINING SW KS THROUGH 7
PM, THEN TRACK EASTWARD THIS EVENING. MULTICELL CONVECTION WILL
PREVAIL, WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL TO 1 INCH AND
WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL CLEAR THE SKY
RAPIDLY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET, DRY AND UNSEASONABLY CONVECTIVELY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. NWLY
MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL DIRECT GULF MOISTURE SUPPLY AWAY FROM SW KS
THROUGH THURSDAY, AND THE FORECAST IS COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS EXCHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AVERAGING WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF LATE MAY CLIMATOLOGY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FRIDAY APPEARS MINIMAL, AS
BROAD MIDLEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS. OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND,
SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL REESTABLISH, DOWNSTREAM OF MODEST
TROUGHING APPROACHING FROM THE ROCKIES. MOISTURE WILL FINALLY
INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MOST EVIDENT ON SATURDAY. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY, AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH
ARRIVES, BUT AN ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT WILL LIKELY RESTRICT ANY
SEVERE RISK WELL SOUTH OF SW KS. NBM POPS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ARE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY (25-54%) AND THESE WERE
ACCEPTED. IN GENERAL, NO SYNOPTICALLY EVIDENT SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS ARE EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE, FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, AS
WE ENTER THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF OUR SEVERE WEATHER SEASON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
DDC, GCK, AND LBL TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE CORE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AND/OR CEILING IS NOT
EXPECTED, HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. PREVAILING WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTHEAST, BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER THIS
EVENING WITH MORE VARIABLE DIRECTION AND SPEED AROUND HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOST AREAS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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