522
FXUS63 KDDC 200708
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
208 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
MEMORIAL DAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
07Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAIN AND STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLIER
THIS EVENING HAVE ENDED AS THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN THE 700 MB LEVEL
HAS EXITED AND THE SUBSIDENCE COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
ERODING THE CLOUD DECK. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH
INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 10 (C).
TODAY THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED COLD
AIR ADVECTION. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH AN APPROACHING
RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY
COMBINED WITH BETTER MIXING FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LEAD TO
WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED AND
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AMPLIFY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WE WILL HAVE NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN
INTENSIFYING JET STREAK THROUGH NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND A FEW SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE HINTING AT ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. I KEPT POPS AROUND 10% NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE SO FAR IN ANY PRECIPITATION AS THE BETTER LIFT LOOKS TO
BE FURTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LREF ENSEMBLES HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SWITCH FROM RIDGING TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS COMES ON
FRIDAY AS A 700 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A WARM
FRONT WITH THE BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS (NBM PROBABILITIES OF 30-40% EAST OF HIGHWAY 183). SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY THE TROUGH ENTERS INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BISECT SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WITH 700
MB SHORTWAVES COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WE COULD SEE A MULTI DAY OFF
AND ON STORM EVENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 30-40% POPS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SO FAR WITH THE WARMER AIR STAYING TO THE SOUTH
AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN KANSAS THIS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LEAVING US WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
ONGOING RAIN AND STORMS NEAR LBL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THROUGH
06Z. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PASSED THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 15-20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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