870
FXUS63 KDDC 201601
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY QUIET WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY
COOLER AIR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
07Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A
CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RAIN AND STORMS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE ENDED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LIFT IN THE 700 MB LEVEL HAS EXITED AND THE SUBSIDENCE
COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ERODING THE CLOUD DECK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 10 (C).
TODAY THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEPARTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH AN
APPROACHING RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE DAY COMBINED WITH BETTER MIXING FROM THE HEATING OF
THE DAY WILL LEAD TO WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO
15-25 MPH SUSTAINED AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-40 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AMPLIFY THE RIDGE IN
THE WEST WE WILL HAVE NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
AN INTENSIFYING JET STREAK THROUGH NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND A FEW
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. I KEPT POPS AROUND 10% NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE SO FAR IN ANY PRECIPITATION AS
THE BETTER LIFT LOOKS TO BE FURTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LREF ENSEMBLES HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SWITCH FROM RIDGING TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS COMES ON
FRIDAY AS A 700 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A WARM
FRONT WITH THE BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS (NBM PROBABILITIES OF 30-40% EAST OF HIGHWAY 183). SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY THE TROUGH ENTERS INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BISECT SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WITH 700
MB SHORTWAVES COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WE COULD SEE A MULTI DAY OFF
AND ON STORM EVENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 30-40% POPS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SO FAR WITH THE WARMER AIR STAYING TO THE SOUTH
AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN KANSAS THIS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LEAVING US WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH 00Z WED,
WITH GUSTS OF 30-33 KTS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT HYS. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. EXCELLENT
FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TURNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page