547
FXUS63 KDDC 210438
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1138 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY QUIET WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY
COOLER AIR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
QUIET AND DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WAS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE AT MIDDAY, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING ANOTHER CUMULUS FIELD EXPANDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE DEPLETED, AND ALL POPS ARE
AT 0%. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO LATE MAY
NORMALS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH WILL TAPER TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE RAPIDLY AFTER 6 PM.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS
TO THE NORTHEAST OF SW KS WEDNESDAY WITH NO FANFARE OR IMPACTS.
A LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST ZONES
NEAR I-70 WEDNESDAY EVENING, AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z NAM, BUT OPTED
TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW (POPS < 15%). 12Z GFS SHOWS A
WARMING OF +2-3C AT 850 MB WEDNESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RESPONDING INTO THE LOWER 80S. MUCH LESS WIND IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, FOR A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY.
BROAD RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER SW KS THURSDAY, WITH
MODELS SHOWING RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS WILL TREND EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, AND THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL SHAVE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE UPPER 70S.
MODELS REESTABLISH THE DRYLINE OVER SW KS FRIDAY, WITH GUIDANCE
IN AGREEMENT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S RETURNING AT LEAST TO THE
EASTERN ZONES. INSTABILITY WILL RESULT, WITH MODELS INCREASING
CAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL BE NEBULOUS, BUT SOME MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD RIDGING THAT MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO GET STORMS GOING. THE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER
SPACE AND CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS, BUT POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY, RESTRICTED TO THE EASTERN ZONES
EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN BY SATURDAY, WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW TRENDING MORE SWLY. A MORE
SEASONABLY TYPICAL CONVECTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL RESULT, WITH
A STRONG DRYLINE OVER/NEAR SW KS. GFS IS SHOWING ITS EASTWARD OR
PROGRESSIVE BIAS WITH THE DRYLINE SATURDAY, AND FEEL AT LEAST
EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER, WELL INTO THE 80S.
A STRONG COLD FRONT (FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS) IS CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST FOR A PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY NOTICEABLY
COOLER AIR SUNDAY. NBM SHOWS A 10-15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
REDUCTION FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED COOL ADVECTION ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE MONDAY,
ELIMINATING ANY SEVERE RISK DURING THE NORMAL PEAK OF OUR SEVERE
WEATHER SEASON, THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SYNOPTIC PATTERN VERY HOSTILE TOWARD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK, THROUGH MAY
30TH, WITH TROUGHING LINGERING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC, AND
EXPANSIVE MIDLEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING BRIEFLY INCREASING THE POST FRONTAL WINDS TO
15-20 KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH HYS AROUND 00Z AND DDC, GCK, AND LBL BETWEEN 03-05Z. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
HYS BETWEEN 00-03 BUT GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND LOW PROBABILITY OF
STORMS THE TS WORDING HAS BEEN LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TATRO
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