753
FXUS63 KDDC 210701
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
201 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW PROBABILITY (20%) OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS
- COOLER AIR WITH BREEZY WINDS MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH ACCUMULATING RAINS THIS WEEKEND
IN CENTRAL KANSAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
07Z SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK JET STREAK RIDING THE NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CENTRAL
WYOMING THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
DRAPED THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FOR TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL 500 MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND WITH WINDS INCREASING IN THE JET STREAK WE SHOULD SEE
LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET ENTERS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GENERALLY BE IN AN AREA ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR
WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
20 (C) IN THE WARMER LAYER IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND 14 (C) IN THE
COOLER LAYER IN NORTHERN KANSAS. BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-03Z WITH CAMS SHOWING OUTPUT OF
STORMS RANGING FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS
A NESS CITY TO PRATT LINE. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORM
PLACEMENT I KEPT POPS AROUND 20% MAINLY IN NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW POP UP STORMS THAT SHOULD
PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS.
TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN TEXAS STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE
LOW AND AN UPPER HIGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS...WE SHOULD SEE
A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR MAY STANDARDS PASS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE EVENING AND BE SOUTH OF THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ISALLOBARIC WINDS AS THE FRONT PASSES COULD
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS
FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN 9 PM - 3AM AND THEN WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THURSDAY WE
SHOULD SEE MILD AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF QPF IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND
LOWER PROBABILITIES AS YOU MOVE WEST. THE GENERAL SETUP SHOWS A
STATIONARY TO WARM FRONT PROVIDING A BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
TRANSITION FROM A RIDGE ON FRIDAY TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE 700 MB SHORTWAVES AND BEST LIFT
BEING SHOWN IN CENTRAL KANSAS. NBM PROBABILITIES OF 0.25 INCHES OF
RAIN OR MORE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CONTINUE TO BE HIGHEST ALONG AND
EAST OF A HAYS TO COLDWATER LINE (20-30%) AND GENERALLY 10% OR LESS
AS YOU GO WEST. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES AS
HIGHS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE 70S AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID 90S WHICH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CSU-MLP SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME CONTINUE TO BE LOW (~5% WIND AND HAIL)
SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING BRIEFLY INCREASING THE POST FRONTAL WINDS TO
15-20 KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH HYS AROUND 00Z AND DDC, GCK, AND LBL BETWEEN 03-05Z. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
HYS BETWEEN 00-03 BUT GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND LOW PROBABILITY OF
STORMS THE TS WORDING HAS BEEN LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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