662
FXUS63 KDDC 051750
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
(15 TO NEAR 30%). THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL LARGER THAN
2", STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN WATER ISSUES FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY. THIS WILL INCLUDE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- THERE ARE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER (15 TO NEAR 30%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR CERTAIN, (100%) TO DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AREA AFTER 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AT FIRST (15-30% IN THE WEST NEAR THE
CO LINE) DUE TO THE SUPERCELL MODE. LARGE 2 INCH – 3 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL IS POSSIBLE INITIALLY, THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM. AFTER
THE INITIAL SUPERCELL MODE COLD POOL INTERACTIONS WILL PROBABLY
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE KS/OK STATE LINE SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THURSDAY EVENING. A TORNADO RISK IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES IS
SUPPORTED BY EXPECTED HREF 2-5 KM UPDRAFT HELICITIES IN MANY OF
THE MEMBER CAMS TO 150 M^2/S^S COMBINED WITH 0-1 SHEAR IN THE
100-200 M^2/S^S AREA. THE SEVERE RISK OUTLOOK FOR THE DAY 1
INCLUDES A HATCHED REGION FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL (2+ INCHES
DIAMETER) EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
183 - WITHIN A SLIGHTLY BROADER SLIGHT RISK AREA (RISK LEVEL 2
OF 5) EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF A SCOTT CITY TO STAFFORD LINE.
HREF PROBABILITY MATCHED MEANS SHOW A WIDESPREAD 1.5” - 3”
INCHES OF RAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 400 THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED AN OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) INDICATING ABOUT A 15% CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY WET OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. WITH HREF PROBABILITY MATCHED MEANS SHOWING ABOUT
A WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES AND A SPOTTY 3 INCHES THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY, THE 3 HR BASED RFC FFG AT 2.5+ INCHES SUPPORTS HOLDING
OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED INUNDATED COUNTY ROADS
CAN’T BE RULED OUT.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BECOME GRADUALLY WARMER INTO THE
WEEKEND, REACHING THE 80S AND 90S BY SUNDAY. FRIDAY PRESENTS
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE WEATHER RISK
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A DRYLINE/WARM FRONT
HANGS ON ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AGAIN ON FRIDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT 17Z TODAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 21Z TODAY
AND 00Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HAYS AREA WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED. THIS IMPROVING SKY COVER WILL
NOT LAST LONG AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING AND
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT THIS
WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE DODGE CITY AND GARDEN CITY
AREAS. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLY TONIGHT (BETWEEN 03Z-06Z) THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS TO FALL BELOW 1000FT AGL. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT
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