561
FXUS63 KDDC 071747
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL HINGE UPON TIMING OF A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITHIN NE/KS. EXIT REGION
FORCING AND WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS SINCE MOVED
SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHWEST KS, ENDING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS. INCREASING DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SOON TO BE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
INTO SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING MOIST, MORE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SOUTH) FROM MORE STABLE AIR MASS (NORTH) IN TX
PANHANDLE WILL STALL AND EVENTUALLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD AMID
SHALLOW MID/UPPER RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A
STOUT UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THE STOUT UPPER LOW WILL ALSO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
DRIVE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. MORE DETAILS FOUND BELOW.
NEXT WEEK WILL HOST PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OFFERING SOME UPPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER, A GENERAL LACK OF MORE APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. BEHIND SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT, OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING A TREND TOWARD ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY...
WHILE THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THIS WILL DEPEND ENTIRELY ON WHETHER OR NOT SUNDAY'S
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF CAMS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FAVORS A SCENARIO WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS,
THERE IS STILL A SUBSET OF GUIDANCE STILL OFFERS A SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE WITHIN KANSAS BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE OKLAHOMA. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT
WITHIN KANSAS, MOST LIKELY HAZARDS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH AND LARGE HAIL. WITHIN THIS SUBSET OF GUIDANCE,
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, MITIGATING TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THIS SUBSET OF GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY
NARROW WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 1 PM AND 6 PM GIVEN THE
FORWARD SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM KANSAS INTO
OKLAHOMA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
WEST WINDS AT 12 KTS OR LESS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT GIVEN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES AROUND 15-18Z, WITH NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY IMPACT KDDC/KLBL AND KGCK BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AS THE FRONT PASSES,
WITH CHANCES OF IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS 20-30%. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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