586
FXUS63 KDDC 080405
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1105 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, SOUTH OF US 50. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, WITH
LARGE HAIL 1-2 INCHES IN DIAMETER THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR JUNE NORMALS, IN THE
80S, THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING. THE VARIOUS CAMS
AND ENSEMBLE SUITES INDICATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE
FRONT REACHES GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY, WITH A LARGER STORM
CLUSTER POSSIBLY FORMING AS THE STORM LINE CROSSES THE OK/KS
LINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WITH THE FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE IN THE
COUNTIES BORDERING OKLAHOMA AFTER POSSIBLE COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT.
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SO
THAT MONDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE A LITTLE BY
TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND DUE TO
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY LOW MONDAY,
WITH ANY CONVECTION BEING SOUTH OF KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, EMANATING FROM
LOW LATITUDES, THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ADVERTISED TO FEATURE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COLD AIR AT 500MB. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF
KANSAS; BUT A FEW NON-SEVERE STORMS CAN’T BE RULED OUT OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, WITH CONTINUED VERY SMALL
CHANCES (10-20%) FOR NON-SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
AFTER THE UPPER LOW PASSES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS INDICATED BY THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A LITTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION. PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD FAVOR
VERY SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE MID
TO UPPER LOW FLOW MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH BY THIS TIME FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL, ALBEIT ISOLATED.
BY SATURDAY, THE PERSISTENT BUT WEAK MID LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL
HAVE ADVECTED A MIXED LAYER EASTWARD OVER THE MOIST LAYER. THIS
WILL SERVE AS A LID OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ALLOWING VERY
HIGH DEWPOINTS TO COLLECT IN A SHALLOW LAYER UNDER THE CAPPING
INVERSION, LEADING TO HIGH SURFACE BASED CAPE. PATTERN
RECOGNITION SUGGESTS THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN’T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT DESPITE 700MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO +16C,
ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MANAGES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS TO PROVIDE A FOCUS. BULK SHEAR WILL BE
IMPROVING, BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE, WHICH DOES
NOT FAVOR SUPERCELLS. BUT ANY ISOLATED STORM THAT MANAGES TO
FORM COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION UNDERNEATH A CAPPING INVERSION, DEWPOINTS
COULD REACH INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. AND WITH MID TO HIGH
LEVEL WINDS INCREASING A BIT MORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
LATE DAY SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS
WILL STAY DRY, WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 10%.
ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW,
INDICATING A LOW LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A
LARGER COMPLEX, IF STORMS MANAGE TO FORM AT ALL. 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND +18C, WHICH WILL ALSO
DISCOURAGE STORM ORGANIZATION INTO LARGE CLUSTERS. GIVEN THE
RICH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER,
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH ABOVE 90 THROUGH
SUNDAY EXCEPT ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS IN THE SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR. HEAT INDICES WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD TOWARD DANGEROUS
LEVELS BY SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST
AS DODGE CITY. BY MONDAY 16 JUNE, EXTREME HEAT INDICES COULD
BECOME A PROBLEM IF DEWPOINTS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S, PARTICULARLY
FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
VFR/SKC WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SUN. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT HYS BY 15Z SUN, REACH GCK/DDC BY 18Z SUN,
AND LBL BY 21Z SUN. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOLLOWING COLD FRONT PASSAGE, GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT DURING THE 18-21Z SUN TIME FRAME, NEAR GCK/DDC/LBL. FOR
THESE AIRPORTS INCLUDED VCTS/CB, AND A CONVECTIVE TEMPO GROUP
FOR LBL WHERE CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS IS HIGHEST. NO STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT HYS, AND KEPT THAT TAF DRY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOUTH OF ALL AIRPORTS BY 00Z MON, WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...TURNER
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