745
FXUS63 KDDC 081000
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, SOUTH OF US 50. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, WITH
LARGE HAIL 1-2 INCHES IN DIAMETER THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR JUNE NORMALS, IN THE
80S, THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
MIDNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A CLEAR SKY OVER SW KS,
OTHER THAN CONVECTIVE ANVIL DEBRIS NEAR OKLAHOMA. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
MODELS FORECAST A STRONG COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR I-70 BY 10 AM,
ALONG US HIGHWAY 50 BY NOON, AND CLEARING THE KS/OK BORDER
AROUND 5 PM. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BUILD RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AFTER SUNRISE, WITH 00Z NAM FORECASTING
MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG BY 18Z. WITH THE LIFT OF THE COLD
FRONT ACTING AS THE TRIGGER, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS
WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE,
COMPARED TO WHAT IS NORMALLY OBSERVED, WITH MOST CAMS SUGGESTING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNDERWAY BY 1 PM. SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 50, WHERE POPS WERE
RAISED TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. THE HIGH INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
AT LEAST INITIALLY, WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
RISK. SPC SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITY ALIGNS WITH THIS THINKING,
WITH THE HIGHEST RISK OF HAIL 2"+ IN DIAMETER ADJACENT TO
OKLAHOMA. ANY SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THAT CAN
REMAIN DISCRETE, AND NOT UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT, WILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A LOW TORNADO RISK. INITIAL SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLUSTER AND COMBINE COLD POOLS TO FORM A
LARGE POWERFUL MCS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY 7 PM. REDUCED POPS TONIGHT, WITH ALL ZONES
DRY, CERTAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS
SW KS.
A SUNNY AND DRY MONDAY IS FORECAST, WITH A SUBSIDENT REGIME,
VERY FEW CLOUDS, AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. ANY CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE TIED TO OROGRAPHICS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
MONDAY, WELL WEST OF SW KS. RISING HEIGHTS AND A WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE TUESDAY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 80S, TO NEAR 90, WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
TO VARYING DEGREES, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A WEAK TROUGH IN
THE MIDLEVEL FLOW, PASSING NEAR/SOUTH OF SW KS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. NBM POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES, WHICH SEEMS LOGICAL AND WERE ACCEPTED.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR JUNE CLIMATOLOGY, IN THE
MID 80S.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS CLEAR FOR A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMBING DAILY. EPS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND ECMWF SHOW RIDGING BECOMING QUITE PRONOUNCED BY
NEXT SUNDAY, WITH A 594DM RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO. IMPORTANTLY
DURING THIS TIME, MODELS MAINTAIN MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE GULF,
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS MAINTAINING DEWPOINTS EASILY ABOVE 70,
WELL WESTWARD INTO SW KS. AS SUCH, HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED NEXT WEEKEND AS SUMMER BEGINS
TO TAKE HOLD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SUN. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT HYS BY 15Z SUN, REACH GCK/DDC BY 18Z SUN,
AND LBL BY 21Z SUN. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOLLOWING COLD FRONT PASSAGE, GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT DURING THE 18-21Z SUN TIME FRAME, NEAR GCK/DDC/LBL. FOR
THESE AIRPORTS INCLUDED VCTS/CB, AND A CONVECTIVE TEMPO GROUP
FOR LBL WHERE CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS IS HIGHEST. NO STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT HYS, AND KEPT THAT TAF DRY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOUTH OF ALL AIRPORTS BY 00Z MON, WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 03Z MON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
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