976
FXUS63 KDDC 082019
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
319 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS WILL BE EXITING SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THIS EVENING.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. T-STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH ANY SEVERE HAIL STAYING SOUTH OF
THE KANSAS STATE LINE. ELEVATED, STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL END AS WELL. A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
50S. MONDAY WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY
TUESDAY AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN
INTO ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA BY SATURDAY. ALL OF THE MODEL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE STAYING WELL SOUTH OF KANSAS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND MODERATE SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES, A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DESPITE THE LACK OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WITH THE GRAND ENSEMBLE ONLY SHOWING 10-20%
CHANCES FOR .1" OR MORE OF RAIN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EVEN THROUGH SATURDAY, DISCOURAGING
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
MORE LIKE THE MID 90S. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD
BE WELL TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL SUPPRESS ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM FORMING
OVER WESTERN KANSAS; AND THIS WILL NOT BE A FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR STORM CLUSTERS TO FORM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE
INTO KANSAS. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MAINLY DRY FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWING 24 HOUR PROBABILITIES OF
GREATER THAN .1" OF RAIN LESS THAN 10%.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15-18 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIMINISHES BY
01Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT KLBL NEAR THE TAF ISSUANCE TIME
BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE (30%) AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY
20-21Z. STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF KDDC AND KGCK ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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