278
FXUS63 KDDC 091006
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
506 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY EVENING.
- THE FIRST ROUND OF SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OUT
AT MIDNIGHT, AS A SUBSIDENT REGIME BUILDS INTO KANSAS. THE SKY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AT SUNRISE.
MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY DRY AND QUIET UNDER BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
NEAR JUNE NORMALS, IN THE 80S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO STARTING MIDDAY MONDAY. 00Z NAM AND MANY
CAMS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZING INTO A
COMPLEX OVER NE NEW MEXICO BY MONDAY EVENING. THE EXPECTATION IS
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF EVEN MORTON COUNTY AND
ELKHART, SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
MODELS SHOW A NET WARMING OF +2-3C AT 850 MB TUESDAY, ALONG WITH
RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND LIGHT SWLY DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSION. A
NOTICEABLY WARMER AFTERNOON WILL RESULT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 AT PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSISTENCY WITH WEAK TROUGHING PASSING SOUTH OF
SW KS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING SOUTH OF SW KS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS EASILY IN THE LOWER 60S. AS SUCH,
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON, AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER, THE BEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE WEAK UPPER CYCLONE WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, WHERE ANY STRONG CONVECTION AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES THE WEAK MIDLEVEL CYCLONE WILL BE SLOW
TO DEPART THE REGION, NEAR OR OVER OKLAHOMA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHILE STRONG 595DM RIDGING BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO BY
SATURDAY. ONCE THE WEAK MIDLEVEL CYCLONE MOVES OUT OF THE WAY, A
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND 850 MB WARM PLUME SPREAD OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
HOTTEST DAYS SO FAR THIS SEASON. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE, LONG RANGE GFS-BASED TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO HOT. STILL, HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
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