688
FXUS63 KDDC 092309
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
609 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
TO LOW 90S.
- ISOLATED SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- QUICK RETURN TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY, CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEAL A
RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH A LONGWAVE
RIDGE WEST OF THE ROCKIES, AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD OUT ACROSS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE WESTERN RIDGE,
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDLESS SKIES ABOVE SOUTHWEST KS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
UNDER THE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION, AND WILL INCH UP ANOTHER FEW
DEGREES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.
OVERNIGHT, CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OPTIMIZE
RADIATIONAL COOLING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID
50S NORTH TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS DAYTIME TUESDAY, AS
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
SLIGHTLY DAMPEN, MAINTAINING A DRY AND QUIET REGIME. A
COMBINATION OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY A FEW DEGREES
AND MODEST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL RESULT IN
AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. LOCATIONS WITHIN THE RED HILLS MAY EVEN
APPROACH THE MID 90S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE LARGELY DAMPENED OUT, LEAVING GENERALLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS EVOLUTION, ALONG WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN
OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS, LIKELY
IN THE FORM OF SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST, AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND, THE GEFS AND ECMWF EPS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS,
YIELDING A RETURN OF THE WARM/DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE BEFORE
STRENGTHENING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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