661
FXUS63 KDDC 101723
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1223 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
-DRY WITH A WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
MIDNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED MAINLY A CLEAR SKY IN A CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE REGIME.
ALL MODELS FORECAST WARMING TUESDAY, WITH 00Z NAM WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES 2-3C OVER MONDAY,
AND WITH HEIGHTS RISING. A NOTICEABLY WARMER AFTERNOON WILL RESULT, IN THE LOWER 90S.
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.
AS A RESULT, 00Z NAM FORECASTS MODEST INSTABILITY, WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL BE LACKING, OR MODEST AT BEST, WITH A WEAK MIDLEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA.
ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELEGATED
TO MAINLY OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, WITH MOST OF SW KS REMAINING DRY.
SOUTHERN PLAINS WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE, OR SLOWLY DISSOLVE, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH WEAK FLOW PROJECTED OVER SW KS. SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE PLAINS, SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING NBM POPS ARE
NECESSARILY VERY LOW TO ZERO.
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH STRONG 595 DM RIDGING BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH HEIGHTS RISING SHARPLY OVER SW KS. THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL RESULT,
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S,
SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR HEAT INDICES AND THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 8-12 KTS WILL GRADUALLY TREND TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING, WHERE THEY WILL
HOLD STEADY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 30 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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