317
FXUS63 KDDC 110509
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1209 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.
- ISOLATED SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.
- QUICK RETURN TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT
MIDDAY REVEAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING UPSTREAM ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD OUT FROM THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH DIXIE ALLEY, WHICH
IS SUPPORTING MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEVERE
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS. UNDER THE STRONG SOLAR
INSOLATION AND WEAKLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE AREA, AND WILL TICK UP
A BIT FURTHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FOR HIGH
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT, PARTIAL CLOUD COVER AND 10-15
MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN
TUESDAY, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S.
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD,
WITH MOSTLY ZONAL MID- LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY LATE MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL EJECT FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
FURTHER REDUCING 500-MB HEIGHTS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. THIS WEAK IMPULSE MAY ALSO FOSTER LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (10-20%), HOWEVER LATEST HREF PRECIPITATION MEANS SHOW
NO ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS, SO POPS WILL BE HELD BELOW 15%.
ON THURSDAY, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL DEEPEN MODESTLY AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE OZARKS. 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
IN RESPONSE, ALLOWING FOR THE COOLING TREND TO PERSIST WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD FRONTAL
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST CO AND ADJACENT AREAS MAY MEANDER INTO
OUR AREA AMIDST 15-20 KT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. FRIDAY AND BEYOND, MEDIUM
RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL REBUILD ATOP THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, YIELDING THE END OF THE COOLING
TREND AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE, WITH
VFR/SKC, OCCASIONAL SCATTERED CIRRUS, AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER 15Z WED,
ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS, GUSTING 25-30
KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER/SPRINGER
AVIATION...TURNER
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