356
FXUS63 KDDC 111119
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
619 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND DRY, TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SW KS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTS ONTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MODELS SHOW A VERY MINOR COOLING TREND,
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE TRIMMED 1-2C EACH DAY, AND HEIGHTS LOWER
SOME WITH THE WEAK CLOSED LOW JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SW KS.
ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS WILL ESTABLISH THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AFTER 10AM WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH, MOISTURE
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MAINTAINED, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. AS SUCH, 00Z NAM CONTINUES
TO PROJECT MODEST INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
CAPE NEAR/OVER 2000 J/KG. WITH NO TRIGGERING MECHANISMS OBVIOUS,
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY, AND THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
IS A FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD EACH AFTERNOON.
A WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ALL MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE FIRST STRONG MIDLEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OF THE SUMMER SEASON OVER THE NEW MEXICO REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HEIGHTS CLIMBING DAILY OVER SW KS.
WIDESPREAD GREEN VEGETATION, STANDING WATER, AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
WILL SLOW DOWN THE HEATING TREND. STILL, AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS TO
DRY OUT THE GROUND, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE
90S BY MONDAY AS SHOWN BY NBM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL MAINTAIN GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
AS SUCH, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR HEAT INDICES AND THE NEED FOR
A HEAT ADVISORY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE, WITH
VFR/SKC, OCCASIONAL SCATTERED CIRRUS, AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER 15Z
TODAY, ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS,
GUSTING 25-30 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
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