628
FXUS63 KDDC 111900
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
- WARM CONDITIONS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE CLASSIC JUNE MCSS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT
MIDDAY REVEAL A RATHER FLAT SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS, WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH HAS YIELDED BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KS TODAY. DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION AND STRONG SOLAR
INSOLATION, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THIS AFTERNOON
OWING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER 1000-500-MB THICKNESS, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES, AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
DAYTIME THURSDAY, GUIDANCE BEGINS TO EJECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OZARKS, SHOWING MODEST
STRENGTHENING IN THE PROCESS. AS A RESULT, 1000-500-MB THICKNESS
WILL DECREASE FURTHER, WHICH WILL SHAVE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OFF
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LATEST HREF MEMBERS SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CO MAY
REACH FAR WESTERN KS AMIDST THE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO,
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THIS
THINKING ALIGNS WITH THE LATEST DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, WHICH OUTLINES A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) ACROSS OUR FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST ZONES.
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEAST DAYTIME FRIDAY AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BEGINS TO
REBUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN RESPONSE, 500-MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON THE UPSWING, REVERSING THE COOLING TREND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW 90S. ANOTHER, MORE ROBUST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL EXIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST CO AND
ADJACENT AREAS AND TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. GIVEN
THE TIGHTENING 500-MB HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND EJECTING TROUGH, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER WITHIN AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS, SUPPORTIVE OF A LONGER-LASTING AND MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S DAY 3
OUTLOOK HAS NEARLY OUR ENTIRE CWA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5), WHICH APPEARS APPROPRIATE.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO, MAINTAINING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE, INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF EPS AND GEFS METEOGRAMS HINT
AT FURTHER ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, LIKELY IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CO ONCE AGAIN. THIS EVOLUTION IS FREQUENTLY
OBSERVED IN JUNE, HOWEVER MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL DICTATE WHERE
AND HOW STRONG ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO AOB 12 KTS, AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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