207
FXUS63 KDDC 120715
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
215 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-30%) RETURN LATE FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN EASTERN COLORADO.
A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE SREF POINTS TO A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO DEPART EASTWARD
THROUGH THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION. DESPITE A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW REINFORCING A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND
MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 60S(F),
PROVIDING AMPLE INSTABILITY, CAPPING AND A WEAK UNFAVORABLE FLOW
ALOFT WILL HINDER PRECIP CHANCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (20-30%) PICK UP A LITTLE LATE FRIDAY AS WEAK H5 VORT MAXIMA
BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES OFF A SLOWLY
NORTHWARD BUILDING RIDGE AXIS. DESPITE AN EXTREMELY WEAK FIELD OF
WESTERLIES ALOFT, AMPLE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GIVE WAY TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS THEN
POTENTIALLY DRIFTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE NBM SHOWING A 10-20%
PROBABILITY OF 12-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.25 OF AN INCH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS, INCLUDING THE I-70 CORRIDOR, BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY
MORNING.
FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS PREVAILING
SOUTHEASTERLIES REINFORCE A WARMER AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 20C IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TO WELL ABOVE 25C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO LINE. WITH THE HREF
INDICATING A 60-70% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 80F IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO A BETTER THAN 80% PROBABILITY OF NUDGING
ABOVE 90F IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 80S(F) WITH NEAR 90F POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COLORADO
LINE. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND IF FORECAST WITH
HIGHS PUSHING THE LOWER/MID 90S(F) BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN EASTERN COLORADO.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON/SPRINGER
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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