690
FXUS63 KDDC 122200
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
- TEMPERATURE TREND REVERSES FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO THE 90S.
- MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FAVORS MCS DEVELOPMENT
IN NORTHEAST CO AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT
MIDDAY REVEAL ROUGHLY ZONAL FLOW ATOP THE NORTHERN CONUS, WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON TODAY, THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TO OZARKS,
LEAVING A NEBULOUS SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS IN
ITS WAKE. AS A RESULT, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CREEPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, HREF MEMBERS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN REGARDING ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, NOW SUGGESTING
ALL THUNDERSTORMS FAIL TO REACH WESTERN KS. THEREFORE, A QUIET
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S BY FRIDAY MORNING.
DAYTIME FRIDAY, GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, ALLOWING
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ABOVE THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN INCREASING 500-MB HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE, THE COOLING TREND WILL BE REVERSED WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S. WITH THE NEWFOUND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER NORTHEAST CO DURING THE AFTERNOON,
IT WOULD APPEAR THE CLASSIC JUNE MCS TRAIN WILL GET ROLLING
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, LATEST HREF SHOWS LITTLE TO
NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REACH OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN. THIS IS
IN CONTRAST TO SPC'S DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WHICH STILL
OUTLINES A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
AND GIVEN A SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE, IT'S
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL. AS SUCH, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
(15-24%) WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER NEW
MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSHING FURTHER INTO THE 90S WITH TIME, AND A
DAILY OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
500-MB FLOW WILL PROMOTE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES EMERGING FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO OUR AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LIFR CIGS FOR KGCK/KDDC/KHYS AROUND 12Z. IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO VFR EXPECTED AROUND NOON. KLBL SHOULD REMAIN VFR THE WHOLE
TIME. WINDS WILL BE SE/S 5-15 KT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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