285
FXUS63 KDDC 130506
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1206 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
- TEMPERATURE TREND REVERSES FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO THE 90S.
- MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FAVORS MCS DEVELOPMENT
IN NORTHEAST CO AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT
MIDDAY REVEAL ROUGHLY ZONAL FLOW ATOP THE NORTHERN CONUS, WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON TODAY, THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TO OZARKS,
LEAVING A NEBULOUS SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS IN
ITS WAKE. AS A RESULT, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CREEPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, HREF MEMBERS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN REGARDING ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, NOW SUGGESTING
ALL THUNDERSTORMS FAIL TO REACH WESTERN KS. THEREFORE, A QUIET
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S BY FRIDAY MORNING.
DAYTIME FRIDAY, GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, ALLOWING
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ABOVE THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN INCREASING 500-MB HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE, THE COOLING TREND WILL BE REVERSED WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S. WITH THE NEWFOUND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER NORTHEAST CO DURING THE AFTERNOON,
IT WOULD APPEAR THE CLASSIC JUNE MCS TRAIN WILL GET ROLLING
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, LATEST HREF SHOWS LITTLE TO
NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REACH OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN. THIS IS
IN CONTRAST TO SPC'S DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WHICH STILL
OUTLINES A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
AND GIVEN A SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE, IT'S
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL. AS SUCH, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
(15-24%) WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER NEW
MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSHING FURTHER INTO THE 90S WITH TIME, AND A
DAILY OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
500-MB FLOW WILL PROMOTE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES EMERGING FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO OUR AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
LIGHT SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LOW
LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK, NOT TO MENTION AREAS OF POSSIBLE
FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CIG/VSBY DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY AFTER 09-11Z THIS MORNING IN VICINITY
OF ALL TAF SITES WITH THE LOWEST CIGS IN VICINITY AND EAST OF KDDC.
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO IMPROVE THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING,
RETURNING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK
LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN
COLORADO.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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