787
FXUS63 KDDC 130706
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
206 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-30%) RETURN THIS EVENING.
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS PUSHING OFF
THE PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN
COLORADO.
MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-30%) RETURN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT AS THE SREF CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK H5 VORT MAXIMA
CRESTING THE AXIS OF A SLOWLY BUILDING RIDGE IN THE COLORADO ROCKIES,
AND EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH A DEVELOPING FIELD OF WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK, POOLING MOISTURE WITHIN PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG).
THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING, WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS EJECTING H5 VORT MAXIMA INTERACT WITH AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANCHORED LEE SIDE TROUGH. ANY STORMS
ARE PROJECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS AN MCS LATER IN THE
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
IS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS MID/LATE EVENING AS SUGGESTED BY MOST
CAMS AND WHERE THE HREF POINTS TO A 20-30% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF
EXCEEDING 0.25 OF AN INCH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST SATURDAY,
THOUGH THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIFTS NORTHEAST
WITH MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES POINTING TO ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NBM INDICATING A 10-20% PROBABILITY
OF 12-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.25 OF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BYEARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY AS PREVAILING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLIES DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
PUSHING WELL ABOVE 20C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 30C ALONG THE COLORADO
LINE. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 80S(F) IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER/MID 90S(F) FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
HREF PAINTING BETTER THAN A 90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING
85F EVERYWHERE TO A BETTER THAN 90% PROBABILITY OF HIGHS TOPPING
90F IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE WARMING TREND LEANS INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS PUSHING THE LOWER/MID 90S(F) SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
LIGHT SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LOW
LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK, NOT TO MENTION AREAS OF POSSIBLE
FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CIG/VSBY DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY AFTER 09-11Z THIS MORNING IN VICINITY
OF ALL TAF SITES WITH THE LOWEST CIGS IN VICINITY AND EAST OF KDDC.
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO IMPROVE THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING,
RETURNING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK
LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN
COLORADO.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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