557
FXUS63 KDDC 261636
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1136 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
FOCUSED ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A LIBERAL-DODGE CITY-LARNED
LINE.
- SPC MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) OF SEVERE FOR A DAMAGING WIND RISK
WITH ONLY A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF LARGE HAIL (LESS THAN 5%
PROB. RISK WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT).
- WPC MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOCUSED MAINLY ON SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS,
GENERALLY EAST OF AN ASHLAND-KINSLEY-GREAT BEND LINE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
THE OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS
CONTINUED TO SHOW A DEEP, MOIST LAYER OF THE LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE
EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. MUCH OF THE LATE NIGHT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO NEBRASKA IN A REGION OF STRONGEST MID-
TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES INTO EASTERN WYOMING. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS INDUCING A WEAK REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE WITH
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA DOWN
INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/FRONT (NEGLIGIBLE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TO EVEN CALL IT A FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS)
WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST, WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS, THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT RENEWED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG IT AND OUT AHEAD OF IT WITHIN THE DEEP
MOIST LAYER WHERE THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CAPPING INVERSION ONCE
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, A
FEW OF WHICH MARGINALLY SEVERE, WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF ROUGHLY LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED LINE. HREF 75TH
PERCENTILE SBCAPE OF UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS, HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
(GENERALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS OF 0-6KM AGL SHEAR VECTOR MAGNITUDE)
WILL PREVENT SUPERCELL STORMS. THE CONTINUED DEEP MOIST LAYER,
CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 7.5 TO 8 G/KG IN THE 850-
500MB LAYER, WILL FAVOR HIGHLY WATER-LOADED UPDRAFTS, FAVORING
STRONG DOWNBURST/MICROBURST POTENTIAL AND NOT SO MUCH LARGE HAIL. WE
WILL MESSAGE THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
RATES AS A RESULT. THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ARE IN A WPC MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, GENERALLY EAST OF AN ASHLAND TO KINSLEY TO
GREAT BEND LINE.
GOING INTO FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/FRONT WILL
HAVE COMPLETELY DISSOLVED WITH BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RESUMING.
THE SURFACE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE QUITE MOIST AS DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OUT UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE BEST SEVERE
CONVECTIVE RISK LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WILL SHIFT BACK NORTHWEST
TO THE NORTH OF OUR DDC CWA, SO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO BE
FAIRLY QUIET FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THAT BEING SAID, WE WILL STILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE SMALL TO MODERATELY SIZED MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) TO CLIP OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE. THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT IN THE MID LEVELS AS WELL AS THE LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL PREVENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, SO MOST OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN STORM-FREE. LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITHIN THE POLAR
WESTERLIES UP NORTH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, LEADING TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN LATEST NBM POPS WITH 30-50 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
(HIGHEST NORTHEAST) AND 30-40 POPS MONDAY NIGHT (HIGHEST SOUTH). WE
DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATION OF A HEAT WAVE DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS 7-
DAY FORECAST PERIOD, INCLUDING DAYS 4-7 WITH NBM HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH SOME 90S CREEPING BACK IN AGAIN TOWARD
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WE APPROACH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THIS MODERATE CAPE, RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL EQUATE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
(ABOUT A 30- 50% CHANCE AND TEMPOS WERE USED GIVEN THE CAMS
SPATIO-TEMPORAL REFLECTIVITY FIELDS) ALONG THAT TROUGH TO BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HIGH RAIN RATES LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY
CAN LOWER VISIBILITY TO A MILE OR TWO - AS WELL AS CREATING
LOCALLY STRONG, UP TO 50 KNOT DOWNBURSTS. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AS
WELL WITH ANY CB, ALL MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z FROM LIBERAL
(LBL) TO DODGE CITY (DDC). VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE AND SOUTH
WINDS UNDER 10KT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL
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