287
FXUS63 KDDC 272123 CCA
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
423 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK OF MARGINAL RISK FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAINLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE FOR SLOW-
MOVING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL (LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING).
- SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOTTEST DAYS OF THE 7-DAY PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100
DEGREES.
- NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS QUITE SMALL
GIVEN POOR WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SURFACE TOUGHING NEAR THE LESS OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD, MORPHING INTO MORE OF A A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS (KS/CO STATE LINE)
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS TOUGH WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS
LINGER INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT, BUT THE
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS THAN 10% SPATIALLY.
ADDITIONALLY THE AREA IS ONLY ON A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE ODDS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE LESS THAN 5%.
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER IN THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK IS IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY EAST OF A COLDWATER TO PRATT
LINE.
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE PERIOD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE IN THE MID 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. AREAS WEST OF A
HAYS TO GARDEN AND JOHNSON LINE WILL FALL INTO THE MODERATE
CATEGORY SATURDAY AFTERNOON (AS IT IS THE WARMEST DAY) WHICH CAN
IMPACT SOME INDUSTRIES AND HEALTH SYSTEMS. THIS KEEPS OUT HEAT
RISK AT THE LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4, MEANING, THE HEAT WILL IMPACT THE
FOLKS WHO ARE MOST SENSITIVE TO HEAT, SPECIFICALLY THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND OR LESS THAN 12 KNOTS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS SET OF TAFS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED (LESS
THAN 10% COVERAGE) THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING
(AFTER 3Z) THE AREAL EXTEND IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
INCLUDING IN ANY OF THESES TERMINALS FORECASTS. VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THOUGH LEAST 3Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
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