865
FXUS63 KDDC 272310
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
610 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK OF MARGINAL RISK FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAINLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE FOR SLOW-
MOVING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL (LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING).
- SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HOTTEST DAYS OF THE 7-DAY PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100
DEGREES.
- NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS QUITE SMALL
GIVEN POOR WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SURFACE TOUGHING NEAR THE LESS OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD, MORPHING INTO MORE OF A A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS (KS/CO STATE LINE)
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS TOUGH WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS
LINGER INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT, BUT THE
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS THAN 10% SPATIALLY.
ADDITIONALLY THE AREA IS ONLY ON A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE ODDS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE LESS THAN 5%.
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER IN THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK IS IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY EAST OF A COLDWATER TO PRATT
LINE.
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE PERIOD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE IN THE MID 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. AREAS WEST OF A
HAYS TO GARDEN AND JOHNSON LINE WILL FALL INTO THE MODERATE
CATEGORY SATURDAY AFTERNOON (AS IT IS THE WARMEST DAY) WHICH CAN
IMPACT SOME INDUSTRIES AND HEALTH SYSTEMS. THIS KEEPS OUT HEAT
RISK AT THE LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4, MEANING, THE HEAT WILL IMPACT THE
FOLKS WHO ARE MOST SENSITIVE TO HEAT, SPECIFICALLY THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
CONTINUED IVR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY POTENTIAL STORMS THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY IN NATURE, SO ANY ONE AIRPORT
BEING IMPACTED IS QUITE LOW.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BENNETT
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