977
FXUS63 KDDC 292309
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
609 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 5 PM AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS GREATER
THAN 65 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK BUT A WARMING
TREND WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT,
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WERE ALSO PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.
SBCIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BASED ON SPC MESO ANALYSIS HAS
BEEN SLOWLY ERODING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH LATE DAY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE
DAY INSTABILITY/LITTLE TO NO CIN, THE CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS (15-20% CHANCE). AS OF 18Z TODAY, CAMS WERE
STRUGGLING TO IDENTIFY WHERE/IF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL OCCUR.
CURRENT CONFIDENCE ON AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS NOT MUCH BETTER.
IT REMAINS LOW (<20%) REGARDING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THESE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS, IF THEY DEVELOP. AS A RESULT,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN VERY
LOW, AND WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR SATELLITE AND CURRENT
CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME THERE IS ONE
AREA WITH A GREATER THAN 60% CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS LATE TODAY
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND THAT IS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THIS IS WHERE OUR SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED,
ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHEAR. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH DUE TO HIGH STORM BASES, DOWNDRAFT CAPE,
AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT FINALLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS GIVEN THE
ENHANCED SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS. THE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH LARGE
DOWNDRAFT CAPE, STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK,
WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 65 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS.
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE TONIGHT, A COOL DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS THIS SURFACE HIGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK, TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL AVERAGE AROUND
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND.
SOME LOCATIONS ON MONDAY MAY EVEN BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS
AVERAGE, DUE TO CLOUD COVER FROM AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. THE NBM
SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS 5 DEGREES
OR LESS. ON MONDAY, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE FOR HIGHS TO BE LESS
THAN 85 DEGREES WEST AND SOUTH OF THE DODGE CITY AREA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER MONDAY, THE DEVELOPING MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT, WILL ALSO
FAVOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO AND THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE OF
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED, EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE IDEAL TIME TO COMPLETE THEM. BY MID WEEK, AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES AND THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. AS
THIS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD, IT WILL BRING ANOTHER WARMING
TREND TO WESTERN KANSAS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
MAIN WEATHER OF INTEREST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE AN
OVERNIGHT COMPLEX OF STORMS COMING OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO AND
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FOR EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE OF
STORMS COMES IN THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS GREATER THAN 50 KTS AND HEAVY RAIN REDUCING SURFACE
VISIBILITIES TO 3 SM OR LESS. AT GCK AND LBL PROB30 FOR THUNDER
IS BETWEEN 05-08Z, DDC IS 07-09Z AND HYS IS 07-11Z. THESE STORMS
WILL BE MOVING AS THE RESULT OF A COLD FRONT AND A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH AND WE SHOULD SEE NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS. OUTSIDE OF WHEN THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS THE GENERAL FLIGHT
CATEGORY FOR THE TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...TATRO
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