478
FXUS63 KDDC 300751
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
251 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 5 PM AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS GREATER
THAN 65 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK BUT A WARMING
TREND WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
EARLY MORNING RADAR ANALYSIS SHOW TWO AREAS OF STORMS THAT BEAR
WATCHING AS WE CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THIS MORNING. THE FIRST
AREA IS THE HEAVY STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AND
THE SECOND AREA IS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
07Z MESOANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT, LEADING
TO VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. THE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FEATURES MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN RISK, WITH SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF FLOODING POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH FEATURES
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW AND THAT IS EVIDENCED BY MORE FORWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS, AND THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO OUR
NORTHERN CWA AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND CONGEALING INTO MORE OF AN MCS COULD FOSTER STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE CLUSTER BECOMES
MORE ORGANIZED. STORMS LOOK TO CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA AFTER 14Z.
AS WE GO INTO LATER TODAY, WE WILL CLEAR OUT AND LEAVE A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, PLACING SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT AS HOT AS
THEY HAVE BEEN, ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOW 90S
IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
LOOKING THROUGH MID WEEK, LOW TO VERY LOW STORM CHANCES EXIST,
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S BY FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. STORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
BIGGEST STORY FOR AVIATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT CONTINUES BE
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MOST OF THE MORE
ROBUST ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED, BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HYS HAS
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TO IMPACT, SO ADDED PROB30S THERE
FROM 10-12Z. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM THAT DIRECTLY IMPACTS AN AIRPORT. LOW CHANCES AT OTHER
TERMINALS. STORMS CLEAR OUT INTO LATER THIS MORNING, REMAINING
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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